WNBA - 601 Tulsa Shock @ 602 Seattle Storm
Projected Line: 138 Points
***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***
Tulsa will be without Skylar Diggins today and even though the team's shooting won't get worse because of that as Diggins is shooting around 30's% FG this season, the truth is that she is the only player in the team that is averaging more than 3 assists per game with 4.8 assists/game! Tulsa is the worst defensive team in the league and they struggled on their last two games, where they had defensive ratings of 122.6 and 112.9. However, they faced the #1 and #2 offenses in the league in the LA Sparks and Minnesota. The Shock couldn't stop the opponents' explosiveness and allowed 22 and 21 fast break points in those games.
On the other side, Seattle's defense is being phenomenal lately by averaging a 91.2 defensive rating over their last six games! Their offense has been poor as usual (just 8 assists against Atlanta) and they keep playing at a very slow pace by being dead last in pace factor in the league. Therefore, we can expect today's game to be a half court contest as usual in Seattle's games. This will favor Tulsa, as they won't be their awful transition defense being exposed today, as Seattle is dead last on fast break points scored per game. On the other side, Tulsa's offense in halfcourt without their starting PG promises to be a disaster today, especially against Seattle's elite defense.
This will be the third game of the season between these two teams, with the Shock having won the first two. Both games were slow paced contests with pace factors of 66.7 and 72.6, both below Tulsa's season pace. The first game had just 125 points scored, while on the second game Tulsa had their best offensive game of the season with 92 points scored and 128 offensive ratings, but that was a back to back game for Seattle, who was coming from playing a tough game at San Antonio the day before. Seattle's coach tends to overuse their players and the Storm just couldn't be competitive on the second day of a back to back. This time, I expect today's game to be played at a similar pace, something that puts a lot of pressure on both offenses in order to perform well enough for them to score a combined of 145 points. Tulsa's defense will be better today than they were on the two previous games, as Seattle's offense is very far from the level of the LA Sparks and Minnesota. On the other hand, Tulsa's offense will also struggle today on halfcourt sets and without their starting PG. Therefore, I see this game being a very low scoring contest and so, I'll be taking the Under in here on a Double Dime Play!
Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 601/602 Under 145 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes
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