MLB Free Premium Play 07/12: St Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs

St. Louis  at Chicago Cubs

MLB - 901 St Louis Cardinals @ 902 Chicago Cubs (Starting Pitchers: J. Kelly vs C. Villanueva) The Cubs are 5-1 on their last six games and they have been playing well. Yesterday Edwin Jackson made a shutout against the Cardinals, something rare to do against St Louis. For today's game, we have two pitchers that haven't been starting pitchers this season. Jim Kelly will start for the Cardinals and he is coming from a spot start against Miami last Saturday, where he didn't impress with four earned runs allowed in six innings. His advanced numbers were especially poor with 7.07 FIP and 4.38 xFIP! Even coming from the bullpen, Kelly hasn't been anything special this season with 4.15 ERA, 4.64 FIP and 3.90 xFIP! Therefore, I expect the Cubs to put him in trouble today. Carlos Villanueva will start for the Cubs today and he is coming from one earned run allowed on four innings against Pittsburgh last Sunday. Villanueva was on the bullpen, but he stole Scott Feldman's spot in the rotation due to some decent pitching from him. His first start of the season against the Pirates was excellent with 2.25 ERA, 1.32 FIP and 2.02 xFIP! As he wasn't used to having the normal SP workload, he was limited to just 69 pitches against Pittsburgh. When he was coming from the bullpen, Villanueva was still quite decent with 3.63 ERA, 3.86 FIP and 3.79 xFIP! It's clear to me that the Cubs will then have a clear SP edge for today, while their offense has been showing good confident as of late as well. Therefore, the Cubs have great value today as home underdogs and so, I'll be taking them in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 902 Chicago Cubs ML (w/ C. Villanueva) @ +110 / 2.10 on Bovada