MLB Free Premium Play 07/12: Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles

Toronto  at Baltimore

MLB - 917 Toronto Blue Jays @ 918 Baltimore Orioles (Starting Pitchers: M. Buehrle vs C. Tillman) This is once again a tough matchup for Baltimore. The Orioles faced two LH pitchers against Texas and lost both games, but then they faced two RH pitchers in the final two games of the series and easily won both games. Baltimore is #5 in the league versus RH pitchers this season, but they are just #22 versus LH pitchers with just .229 BA over their last 10 games against them. They will face Mark Buehrle tonight, who is coming from allowing no runs in seven innings against Minnesota. Buehrle was unlucky at Boston, but then he was great against the Twins with 0.00 ERA, 1.64 FIP and 2.65 xFIP! Buehrle will have a nice matchup tonight, so I expect him to limit the damage tonight against the Orioles. Baltimore will start Chris Tillman tonight, who allowed five runs in 5.1 innings against the Yankees last Saturday. Tillman hasn't been terrible on any outing, but he hasn't been great in any outing on the other hand. I believe Tillman is clearly being overrated, as even though he posted a 2.68 ERA in June, he had a 4.29 FIP and 4.48 xFIP! Toronto's offense has faced Tillman twice earlier on the season and while Tillman dominated in April, he struggled on the second start at the end of May with three earned runs allowed in five innings. As Buehrle is a tough matchup for the Orioles and I feel that Tillman is overrated, I see great value on the Blue Jays as underdogs tonight. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 917 Toronto Blue Jays ML (w/ M. Buehrle) @ +131 / 2.31 on Betonline