TORONTO RAPTORS
Is Dwane Casey an elite coach?
Casey had just won the title in Dallas as an assistant coach of Rick Carlisle, when he was signed to become the new coach of the Raptors. The challenge wasn't easy, as Toronto was considered as one of the weakest teams in the league and their top rookie Jonas Valanciunas had decided to remain one more year in Europe. To make things worse, Casey wasn't going to have a full training camp due to NBA lockout, so implement a new system in Toronto was going to be Casey’s toughest challenge. Curiously, I remember reading a lot of interviews from Casey where he said that the offense was late in their development in comparison with their defense and this was exactly what happened during the whole season.
2011-12 Regular Season numbers:
Advanced Numbers
|
4 Factors
| ||||||||
Overall
|
#'s
|
Rank
|
Offense
|
#'s
|
Rank
|
Defense
|
#'s
|
Rank
| |
Pace
|
87.95
|
28
|
eFG% Off
|
47.6%
|
22
|
eFG% Def
|
47.6%
|
5
| |
Offense
|
102.59
|
25
|
TO% Off
|
14.74
|
25
|
TO% Def
|
12.75
|
28
| |
Defense
|
105.87
|
12
|
Reb% Off
|
25.69
|
22
|
Reb% Def
|
24.42
|
4
| |
Rebound
|
50.64
|
10
|
FT% Off
|
21.24
|
14
|
FT% Def
|
26.39
|
30
| |
Toronto’s defensive evolution throughout the last three seasons:
Ranks
|
2011-12
|
2010-11
|
2009-10
|
Def. Rate
|
12
|
30
|
30
|
Def. Reb
|
4
|
25
|
23
|
Paint
|
4
|
30
|
16
|
Fastbreak
|
14
|
27
|
27
|
Rim%
|
4
|
14
|
15
|
FT/rate
|
30
|
27
|
21
|
Toronto had been the worst defensive team in the league over the last two seasons. Their projected starting lineup for last season was the following: Calderon – DeRozan – James Johnson – Amir Johnson – Bargnani. This means that there wasn’t going to have any change in their lineup in comparison to the team that had been the worst defensive team in the league in the previous season and still Casey was able to turn the Raptors into a good defensive team!
To realize the important of how a good defensive system is essential for a team, Toronto was counting with a “soft” Bargnani and a group of undersized players in the frontcourt such as Amir Johnson or Ed Davis, but they still managed to be one of the best defensive teams in the league near the basket by being:
#4 in defensive rebounds%;
#4 in points in the paint allowed;
#4 in defending at the rim%
#4 in points in the paint allowed;
#4 in defending at the rim%
Their only defensive struggle last season was the fact that they were the team that took their opponents more times to the free throw line. However this also shows Dwane Casey’s philosophy in not allowing any easy shots near the basket!
What prevented Toronto from being more competitive was their lack of offensive talent, amplified when Bargnani got injured and played just 31 games last season.
Offseason moves 2012-13:
Offseason moves 2012-13:
GM Bryan Colangelo left very clear in the offseason that he doesn't count with Jose Calderon for the future. Steve Nash was the team’s main target in the free agency and as soon as Nash signed with the Lakers, Colangelo didn't waste any time in securing the signing of Kyle Lowry. Calderon will remain in Toronto and it will be interesting to watch what will be his role in the team. I remember that he was benched a couple of years ago when T.J. Ford was in Toronto and there are no doubts about the Spanish player great professionalism.
Another of Colangelo’s main goals in the offseason was to give the team more athleticism and explosiveness in all areas (Lowry fits well on this preposition as well). After deciding to play one more season in Europe, Jonas Valanciunas will finally make his NBA debut this season.
In the draft, the Raptors selected with their 8th draft pick Terrence Ross, who played college for the Washington Huskies. Ross will immediately be the player with more physical ability in the team’s backcourt and he has also good skills in terms of ball handling, besides having a good jump shooting game, therefore I believe he will easily adapt to the NBA. Toronto also signed Landry Fields and even though he was overpaid, Fields will still be a quality option in Casey’s current defensive system.
For the frontcourt, the Raptors drafted Quincy Acy, who even though is undersized for the PF position is a very explosive player and he should be ready to fight for minutes with Amir Johnson and Ed Davis, two players without a lot of offensive talent but who will play tough under Dwane Casey’s leadership.
Renewed offense and with more talent?
While he was healthy, Andrea Bargnani finally showed last season that he can be more than just known for being a former #1 draft pick. The key word to describe his development can be resumed to “aggression”. Bargnani was more aggressive than ever and he had career numbers in free throws per game with 5.6 FT/game. His January was excellent, with 24.2 points per game, while shooting 46.2% FG and having a respectable 6.6 rebounds per game!
Unfortunately, he got injured and even though he returned to the court later in the season, he never got back to his best level.
If Bargnani manages to return to the level shown in that series of games last season and with this improved roster in terms of talent, he may have a shot of reaching the All Star Game and this can be the biggest reason for a good season for the Raptors.
Another player who had an amazing start of the season last year was Kyle Lowry. His impact in every part of the game was impressive, with him averaging 15 ppg, 7apg and 6.5 rpg in a full month! Lowry’s “motor” was infinite but he looked that sooner or later he would regress a bit and that happened, but also happened with the help of a weird bacterial infection. According to mysenergy, Lowry was the #13 most efficient player in the league in pick and roll – ball handler plays with 0.97 PPP in this kind of plays. His evolution has been notable, as he was just Mike Conley’s backup in Memphis and this chance in Toronto may be the starting point of a true affirmation in the league as a star PG.
On the other hand, DeMar DeRozan didn’t have a good season, especially at the offensive end, where the team needed his contribution the most. DeRozan couldn’t just hit the basket from the perimeter, as he shot 37.9% FG from 10-15 feet, 35.0% FG from 16-23 feet and 26.1% 3pts! For this season, it is expected that he improves his perimeter shooting, as he will have bigger competition in the team’s roster. Bargnani’s full time presence may be helpful for him, as last season in the absence of the Italian, DeRozan suffered with the pressure of being the team’s most offensive talented player on the court and this was too much for him to handle.
Besides the rookie Ross, also Valanciunas will make his NBA debut this season. He has already some international experience, including his presence in this year’s Olympic Games with the Lithuanian national team. His athleticism combined with his size makes him a very versatile player and a good complement to Andrea Bargnani. However, his offensive game is still a work in progress, but we are talking about a 20 years old kid, so he will have time to develop his offensive game in the near future.
Will Toronto manage to maintain their defensive level?
If Dwane Casey managed to turn a team composed by players who formed the worst defensive team in the league for two seasons in a row into a respectable defense, it shows that he should be able to do the same thing now that he has a more athletic roster, will more quality options.
Valanciunas and Lowry immediately offer a bigger defensive versatily in their respective positions that Toronto didn’t have last season. If we add a rookie with great athletic abilities and Landy Fields, who is a good rebounder for a backcourt player, this all combined means that Casey will have more talent to work with and he has already showed that he can maximize the potential of the resources that he has available.
I have no doubts that we are talking about an improved team for this season, in comparison to the Raptors of the previous season. The players that were already in the team last season already know the team’s system and Casey will now have a full training camp to better develop his ideas for the team.
While their defense will remain to be reasonable and perhaps even be a top 10 defensive team, it will be the team’s offensive evolution that will decide the team’s fate for this season. Toronto’s main problem is the fact that they are in probably the most competitive division this season and therefore, they will play 16 divisional games against four teams that are clear contenders to the playoffs, something that may cause a delay in the Raptors’ affirmation as a good team.
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