MLB - 901 Detroit Tigers @ 902 New York Yankees
(Starting Pitchers: D. Fister vs A. Pettitte)
The main question is to know if the Yankees' spot for tonight is that poor. If this game was being in Detroit, then things would be very different, but with this game being at NY, I don't think the Yankees' spot for tonight is that bad. CC Sabathia had a complete game yesterday, so the bullpen is rested for today and the Yankees have definitely gained some momentum from last night. So, if the Yankees lose today, it will be due to the matchup and not because of the spot, especially when the Tigers had just 1 day off to rest and they had to travel the whole country from Oakland to New York City.
The Yankees will start Pettitte tonight and he is coming from a game against Baltimore in the previous series, where he had a 3.86 ERA, 2.09 FIP and 3.77 xFIP. His best pitch is clearly the cutter and Detroit has a negative value in hitting those. As we all know, both the Yankees and the Tigers are much better in hitting against RH pitchers than LH pitchers. Detroit has a .724 OPS against LHP (#14), while they are #3 in the league against RHP with .771 OPS! These struggles from the Tigers against LH pitchers plus their struggles against cutters, combined with the fact that Detroit hasn't faced Pettitte since 2008, makes me believe that the Yankees pitching will have a good night tonight, especially they have their bullpen rested.
On the other hand, Fister is coming from a good outing against Oakland, but the difference between the Athletics and the Yankees is really the patience that the Yankees' lineup has and the Athletics haven't by swinging at literally everything. Still, I expect some struggles from the Yankees offense tonight, as Fister posted a 2.57 ERA, 2.52 FIP and 3.78 xFIP in that outing against the Athletics and he has also had a good outing against the Yankees this season back in August, when he allowed just two earned runs and eight hits to the Yankees in 6.1 innings, while having a 4/1 K/BB ratio (2.84 ERA, 2.31 FIP, 3.23 xFIP). His advanced numbers shows that he has almost equal numbers against LH batters (3.13 FIP + 3.29 xFIP) and RH batters (3.83 FIP + 3.53 xFIP) plus he is very good when he has 5 days of rest prior to an outing like he had for tonight's game (2.89 ERA and .228 BA allowed).
While I believe Fister will have a good outing tonight, the Yankees have a better matchup tonight by facing a RH pitcher, while they also have a bigger momentum from having defeated the Orioles last night at home, with a dominant performance from CC Sabathia. Therefore, I expect a Yankees win tonight on a low scoring game and so, I'll be taking both the Yankees and the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 901/902 Under 8 (w/ D. Fister & A. Pettitte) @ -115 / 1.87 on Bodog
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 902 New York Yankees ML (w/ A. Pettitte) @ -132 / 1.76 on Betonline
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