Monday, October 29, 2012

NFL Week 8 Premium Play 10/28: Seattle Seahawks @ Detroit Lions


NFL Week 8 - 229 Seattle Seahawks @ 230 Detroit Lions

Projected Line: Detroit by 5 points

Even though Seattle is being one of the main positive surprises on the league this season and Detroit one of the main disappointments, I believe the Lions have an excellent spot to finally have a good win today. Detroit is coming from a Monday Night Football game in Chicago, where they gave the Bears a good fight and they would have won the game if it wasn't for three turnovers on the Bears' red zone. Matthew Stafford finally had a decent game (even though Calvin Johnson was nowhere to be found in almost the whole game), while the running game is also surprisingly playing well with Mikel Leshoure looking quite decent. I know Seattle's defense has been a great overall unit this season, but I don't expect them to be able to completely stop the Lions' offense today, especially on a 1PM EST game, three time zones away from Seattle's time zone.

On the other hand, I expect Seattle's offense to have a very poor game. They didn't look very good on offense in San Francisco on their last game and that's mostly because Russell Wilson is indeed struggling and I expect him to keep struggling throughout the second half of the NFL season. Detroit doesn't have an amazing pass defense, but they're good in avoiding big plays and I don't expect Russell Wilson to be able to produce anything special on this game. On the running game, Marshawn Lynch keeps having a huge workload, but with just an average efficiency and that's exactly what I expect from him today: a decent performance, with an average efficiency, but not good enough to carry Seattle's offense on his own, as he will get very little support from the passing game.

Detroit is 2-4 right now and they can't afford to lose today. They are starting to play a bit better over the last few weeks and with the help of a noisy crowd, I expect them to neutralize the Seahawks offense and eventually come up with a couple of good plays on offense to get a great win in here. Therefore, I'll be taking the Lions today.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 230 Detroit Lions (-1) @ -125 / 1.80 on Bovada

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