Projected Line: 40 points
I expect this divisional game to turn into a dogfight. Cleveland will be fighting for their first win of the season, while Cincinnati can't afford to lose for the second week in a row if they want to reach the playoffs this season. If we add the fact that the wind will be blowing at 20mph during the whole game, then we have the right ingredients for this game to turn into a very physical game and with both defenses being able to limit the offensive production of their opponents.
Brandon Weeden continues to be able to have some good yardage on his passing game, however he also keeps making some silly mistakes that eventually end up being turnovers. The Browns' Offensive Line has been quite reasonable this season, however they will be facing one of the best pass rushing teams in the league, therefore I expect to see Weeden being hurried and even sacked several times during this game. With Cleveland missing three wide receivers for this game (Mohamed Massaquoi, Jordan Norwood and Travis Benjamin), I believe Brandon Weeden will have a very tough game, especially when the Bengals' secondary has been improving over the past few games, after a very poor start of the season. In terms of the running game, Trent Richardson has been quite inconsistent and unable to have some huge plays, therefore I believe the Bengals run defense will also be able to limit him today, especially when they are coming from an excellent performance against the dangerous Dolphins' running game.
Andy Dalton has been having a good season, with some excellent combinations with A.J. Green, however Cleveland has a pass defense that is in the league's average for now and therefore, they should be able to limit the Bengals' production today in the passing game, especially with the wind causing problems to Dalton. To make things worse for the Bengals, their Offensive Line continues to have problems and Cleveland has a decent pass rush to take advantage of that. In terms of the running game, the Browns have been quite poor on run defense, however the Bengals' running game is equally poor and they just got even poorer by losing Bernard Scott for the season. BerJarvus Green-Ellis won't be able to put the Browns' defense in huge trouble on his own today.
Therefore, I expect both teams to have problems on offense. Cleveland should struggle in all areas on offense, while Cincinnati might have one or two big passing plays and that would be it. I'm expecting this game to be a low scoring one and so, I'll be taking the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 209/210 Under 43,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NFL Week 6 - 219 Detroit Lions @ 220 Philadelphia Eagles
Projected Line: Philadelphia by 7 points
It looks like the public is all over Detroit for this contest, after losing several times with the Eagles this season. However, I believe this matchup highly favors Philadelphia and they should be able to blowout the Lions today, even though they are coming from a bye week.
Everybody knows that the Eagles have been struggling with turnovers and if it wasn't for these turnovers, Philadelphia would have won their games by a good margin. However, Detroit is a team that is yet to intercept a play this season and they have just forced three turnovers to their opponents this season. With the Eagles having in ball security their number one priority for this game, I expect to see the Eagles having a solid game today on this department. If that happens, then the Eagles will have little problems in comfortably win this game. Michael Vick is capable of giving his team good yardage in the passing game and the Lions have an average pass defense and their pass rush isn't good enough to explore the problems the Eagles' Offensive Line has been having this season. In terms of the running game, Philadelphia has a top quality RB in LeSean McCoy and Michael Vick can also run very well. These two players should have a good day against an average Lions run defense.
Detroit's offense depends almost exclusively from their passing game and not only there will be some wind blowing in the stadium today, as Philadelphia has an excellent pass defense to make Matthew Stafford struggle today. The Eagles aren't rushing the passer very often this season, but they are being excellent in coverage and they aren't allowing their opponents to have any impact on their passing game. And if Detroit's passing game struggles, they have no backup plan, as their running game is quite poor and the decent Eagles run defense will completely stop Detroit's running backs. Therefore, I predict the Lions will struggle on offense today.
With the Eagles being able to stop the Lions' offense today, barring another massive number of turnovers, the Eagles' offense should be able to a put a decent number of points today against an average defense, comfortably winning the game in the process. Therefore, I'll be taking Philadelphia in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 220 Philadelphia Eagles (-3) @ -130 / 1.77 on Bookmaker
NFL Week 6 - 221 St Louis Rams @ 222 Miami Dolphins
Projected Line: 34 points
I see all ingredients for this game to become a very low scoring game. Miami's offense is an average unit, with Ryan Tannehill playing better than expected, but his number one receiver Brian Hartline will be well covered today by Cortland Finnegan and therefore, I believe Tannehill won't be able to have a good game today, even with his Offensive Line protecting him very well. In terms of the running game, Daniel Thomas won't play today, so it will be up to Reggie Bush to carry a huge workload today and I don't believe he will be able to have a huge game today, as the Rams are playing solid defense this season under Jeff Fisher.
Sam Bradford has been very poor this season and against one of the best defenses in the league so far, I don't expect him to be anything more than just solid, especially when he has lost Danny Amendola due to a collarbone injury. The Rams' poor Offensive Line will also be outplayed by the Dolphins' good pass rush, so Bradford will also be hurried and sacked a lot today. Therefore, I believe the Rams will do very little with their passing game today. And things won't be different on the running game, with Steven Jackson limited with a groin injury facing the best run defense in the league so far. So, I expect to see the Rams to highly struggle to put points on the board today.
With both teams having a lot of issues on offense for this game, I believe the Under has value even at the current low totals line and therefore, I'll be taking the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 221/222 Under 38 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
NFL Week 6 - 223 New England Patriots @ 224 Seattle Seahawks
Projected Line: 40 points
I know New England's offense has been incredible over the last two weeks, however they will have a very tough game in Seattle under rain the whole game. Tom Brady is obviously a great quarterback, but his Offensive Line has been struggling this season and I expect to see the Seahawks' good pass rush putting Brady in trouble a lot of times today. New England's running game has also been excellent over the last few weeks, however I don't believe this will happen today against Seattle's very good run defense. With the Seahawks stopping the Patriots' running game and putting Brady on the move several times, I believe the Patriots will be a rare tough offensive game today.
On the other hand, Seattle will definitely use their very conservative approach to the game once again. Russell Wilson has barely been a factor this season and most of the team's offensive production depends from their running back Marshawn Lynch. However, the Patriots have been surprisingly good on their run defense this season by being #5 in the league with Y/C allowed! Therefore, I expect to see New England limiting Marshawn Lynch's production just to a decent game from him and that should make Seattle struggle in having a good offensive game today.
With both defenses having a good matchup over both defenses and the weather being quite poor, I expect this game to be a surprisingly low scoring game and therefore, I'll be taking the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 223/224 Under 44 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NFL Week 6 - 229 New York Giants @ 230 San Francisco 49ers
Projected Line: San Francisco by 10 points
I'm taking San Francisco today not only because this is a revenge game for them, as they have a huge matchup edge over this current version of the Giants. Alex Smith has been amazing this season and not only he has been super solid, as he has been able to produce some great yardage with the help of the team's improved receivers corps. Their Offensive Line still has some issues and that would be a problem against the Giants if the NY team was in the same form right now they were in last season's playoffs. But they aren't and they are almost at the bottom in the league in sacks! But where the 49ers have been amazing this season is on the running game and they should have another great game today, as the Giants are struggling on their run defense, therefore I believe San Francisco will be able to have another great offensive game today.
Eli Manning has been having a decent season, however San Francisco's pass defense seems improved from last season and they've been great in preventing their opponents from having big passing plays. So, even though the Giants' good OL will dominate the 49ers pass rush, I believe the 49ers will be able to cover well the Giants receivers and limit the Giants passing game to a reasonable game today. In terms of the running game, with Andre Brown out due to a concussion, Ahmad Bradshaw will be alone on the backfield today and I don't believe he will be relevant on this contest against a very good 49ers run defense.
San Francisco has in the current version of the Giants a great matchup for them and therefore, with revenge on their mind, I believe they are more than ready to have an easy win over the NY team and therefore, I'll be taking the 49ers in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 230 San Francisco 49ers (-6,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NFL Week 6 - 231 Green Bay Packers @ 232 Houston Texans
Projected Line: 44 points
Green Bay's offense has been quite far from the excellent level they've shown last season and I believe this game will be the definite proof that the Packers are struggling this season. It's not like Aaron Rodgers is having a bad season. He continues to have a high completions%, but the deep passes aren't resulting well and this is also caused by the injuries in the receiving corps, as Greg Jennings continues to be out, Jerimichael Finley is questionable for today, the same with Finley's backup D.J. Williams. The fact that Rodgers has less options on offense also makes him need more time to think about the plays and that's just not possible with their struggling Offensive Line that keeps getting outplayed by the opponent's Front Seven game after game. Today should be no exception, with Houston being all over Rodgers the whole game. The Texans have an excellent pass defense and they will limit the Packers' passing game to a poor game from them. In terms of the running game, Green Bay lost Cedric Benson last week and they have now a very low quality backfield that should be able to do very little against Houston's run defense. So, Green Bay should struggle considerably on offense today.
Houston's offensive success this season has been based in a well-balanced offense. Matt Schaub has been just used occasionally and even though he has been able to make one or two big passes per game, he is just being solid this season and letting the running game be responsible for most of the team's offensive production. The Packers' pass defense isn't great, but it is certainly improved from the disaster it was last season. Their pass rush is also working very well this season, however Houston has probably the best Offensive Line in football right now, so this should be an interesting matchup to watch. In terms of the Texans' running game, Arian Foster and Ben Tate have always a big amount of carries and even though they are being able to have a decent production due to the huge amount of carries, they are just averaging 4.0 Y/C, so nothing spectacular. I believe this should happen again today, with Houston being able to have a decent offensive game, but nothing out of this world.
With Houston having a solid but unimpressive offensive game and with Green Bay definitely struggling on their offense due to injuries on their receivers, poor quality of their offensive line and running game plus Houston's excellent defense, I believe this game will actually be a relative low scoring game and so, I'll be taking the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 231/232 Under 48 @ -115 / 1.87 on Bodog
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