MLB - 925 St. Louis Cardinals @ 926 Washington Nationals
(Starting Pitchers: C. Carpenter vs E. Jackson)
***TOP PLAY***
Chris Carpenter was superb last season in the postseason and he even has the label of being “clutch” in the playoffs but this is not the same Carpenter that we are dealing for today’s game.
He made three starts since coming off the DL and his advanced numbers weren't that good:
ERA FIP xFIP
4.50 3.93 3.72
3.00 4.76 4.55
3.60 3.49 5.26
But then we have to understand that he faced the Cubs, the Astros and the Reds and these 3 teams were simply terrible hitting the ball in September:
CIN #29 w/ .618 OPS
HOU #26 w/ .662 OPS
CHC #23 w/ .676 OPS
...
WAS #1 w/ .819 OPS
Carpenter had three favorable matchups to work in his return but still he didn't impress me at all: he had a higher FB% than he used to, and according to fangraphs.com his avg. fastball speed was 91.4, 90.7 and 89.2 when in the last season, Carpenter topped 93mph in his fastball with regularity.
The Nationals hitters are batting .294 BA against him so I expect Carpenter to struggle a bit today while the Cardinals “best middle relief pitcher” Lance Lynn probably won’t be available after pitching 3 innings in game 2.
On the other side, Edwin Jackson will pitch for the Nationals and he didn't have a good month of September. Basically he was “hit or miss” with some terrific outings combined with some stinkers. Nevertheless he pitched better than the numbers wanted to show at a first sight. A 6.54 ERA in September/October won’t impress anyone but he still had a solid 3.85 FIP & 3.93 xFIP. The problem for Jackson is that he had an absurd high .354 BABIP number during that stretch – #6 in the league so the “lucky” factor wasn't on his side lately.
Highest BABIP numbers in September/October:
Felix Hernandez .446
Patrick Corbin .365
Chris Sale .365
Ryan Dempster .356
Hiroki Kuroda .355
Edwin Jackson .354
I expect Jackson’s numbers to settle down today because he has been really good all season long especially against righties hitters: 3.16 FIP & 3.69 xFIP. He has some experience in the playoffs - after all he also won the World Series for the Cardinals last season and I expect him to outduel Carpenter today while the Nationals have a great chance to win today in their first home game of the postseason.
He made three starts since coming off the DL and his advanced numbers weren't that good:
ERA FIP xFIP
4.50 3.93 3.72
3.00 4.76 4.55
3.60 3.49 5.26
But then we have to understand that he faced the Cubs, the Astros and the Reds and these 3 teams were simply terrible hitting the ball in September:
CIN #29 w/ .618 OPS
HOU #26 w/ .662 OPS
CHC #23 w/ .676 OPS
...
WAS #1 w/ .819 OPS
Carpenter had three favorable matchups to work in his return but still he didn't impress me at all: he had a higher FB% than he used to, and according to fangraphs.com his avg. fastball speed was 91.4, 90.7 and 89.2 when in the last season, Carpenter topped 93mph in his fastball with regularity.
The Nationals hitters are batting .294 BA against him so I expect Carpenter to struggle a bit today while the Cardinals “best middle relief pitcher” Lance Lynn probably won’t be available after pitching 3 innings in game 2.
On the other side, Edwin Jackson will pitch for the Nationals and he didn't have a good month of September. Basically he was “hit or miss” with some terrific outings combined with some stinkers. Nevertheless he pitched better than the numbers wanted to show at a first sight. A 6.54 ERA in September/October won’t impress anyone but he still had a solid 3.85 FIP & 3.93 xFIP. The problem for Jackson is that he had an absurd high .354 BABIP number during that stretch – #6 in the league so the “lucky” factor wasn't on his side lately.
Highest BABIP numbers in September/October:
Felix Hernandez .446
Patrick Corbin .365
Chris Sale .365
Ryan Dempster .356
Hiroki Kuroda .355
Edwin Jackson .354
I expect Jackson’s numbers to settle down today because he has been really good all season long especially against righties hitters: 3.16 FIP & 3.69 xFIP. He has some experience in the playoffs - after all he also won the World Series for the Cardinals last season and I expect him to outduel Carpenter today while the Nationals have a great chance to win today in their first home game of the postseason.
Pick: 5 units (Triple Dime Play) on 926 Washington Nationals (w/ E. Jackson) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes
(Starting Pitchers: B. Zito vs M. Leake)
***TOP PLAY***
Last night’s game was a struggle for the hitters of both teams. The Giants bats didn’t show up in the first two games and by facing elimination I didn’t expect any improvement due to the psychological circumstances surrounding game 3. They could only beat the Reds by “outpitching” them and that’s what happened and we cashed the “Under” play quite easily.
Vogelsong was a tough matchup for the Reds as he has been excellent against right handed hitters. The regular Reds lineup features 2 LH hitters in Votto and Bruce while the rest of the crew is right handed so it wasn’t any surprise the Reds struggles on offense last night.
This will change today against Giants LHP Barry Zito. Zito actually has been pitching well lately but this a tough matchup for him, just look for his split stats vs RH and LH hitters:
2012 vs LH hitters: .201 BA, .299 SLG, 2.89 FIP and 4.17 xFIP
2012 vs RH hitters: .276 BA, .468 SLG, 5.08 FIP and 5.19 xFIP
I’ve already mentioned that the Reds have a rotation stacked with righties so Zito is in a tough position especially if we consider that a fly ball pitcher will pitch in a hitters friendly park like the Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati and with the wind projected to be blowing out to center w/+15mph.
Zito has faced the Reds twice in this regular season and while he allowed just one earned run in both starts for two “great starts” his advanced numbers in those games tells us a different story:
ERA FIP xFIP
1.50 5.09 6.56
1.50 4.93 4.96
The Reds roster is batting .303 BA & .903 OPS against him so I expect a nice offensive game from them.
On the other side I expect the Giants to finally have a good offensive game in this series. Last night’s win surely gave them more confidence for today’s game and they won’t have any problem to reach on Mike Leake.
Leake wasn’t expected to start in the playoffs but Cueto’s injury “forced” him to start in here. There is a reason for why Leake was out of the Reds’ lineup for the postseason - he sucked hard in September: 5.48 ERA, .298 BA, 6.38 FIP & 5.12 xFIP!
To make things even worse, he didn’t faced any top offensive unit in that bad stretch (OPS ranks during September):
Pirates (2x) #27 w/ .661 OPS
Cubs #23 w/ .676 OPS
Phillies #16 w/ .722 OPS
Astros #26 w/ .662 OPS
…
Giants #4 w/ .780 OPS
The Giants bats are struggling in this postseason but they were great offensively in the last month so sooner or later they will wake up and today’s is a great spot for them. They know pretty well Leake and have great numbers against him: 104 AB’s, .327 BA & .938 OPS!
I’m playing the Over in here as my Double Dime Play!
Vogelsong was a tough matchup for the Reds as he has been excellent against right handed hitters. The regular Reds lineup features 2 LH hitters in Votto and Bruce while the rest of the crew is right handed so it wasn’t any surprise the Reds struggles on offense last night.
This will change today against Giants LHP Barry Zito. Zito actually has been pitching well lately but this a tough matchup for him, just look for his split stats vs RH and LH hitters:
2012 vs LH hitters: .201 BA, .299 SLG, 2.89 FIP and 4.17 xFIP
2012 vs RH hitters: .276 BA, .468 SLG, 5.08 FIP and 5.19 xFIP
I’ve already mentioned that the Reds have a rotation stacked with righties so Zito is in a tough position especially if we consider that a fly ball pitcher will pitch in a hitters friendly park like the Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati and with the wind projected to be blowing out to center w/+15mph.
Zito has faced the Reds twice in this regular season and while he allowed just one earned run in both starts for two “great starts” his advanced numbers in those games tells us a different story:
ERA FIP xFIP
1.50 5.09 6.56
1.50 4.93 4.96
The Reds roster is batting .303 BA & .903 OPS against him so I expect a nice offensive game from them.
On the other side I expect the Giants to finally have a good offensive game in this series. Last night’s win surely gave them more confidence for today’s game and they won’t have any problem to reach on Mike Leake.
Leake wasn’t expected to start in the playoffs but Cueto’s injury “forced” him to start in here. There is a reason for why Leake was out of the Reds’ lineup for the postseason - he sucked hard in September: 5.48 ERA, .298 BA, 6.38 FIP & 5.12 xFIP!
To make things even worse, he didn’t faced any top offensive unit in that bad stretch (OPS ranks during September):
Pirates (2x) #27 w/ .661 OPS
Cubs #23 w/ .676 OPS
Phillies #16 w/ .722 OPS
Astros #26 w/ .662 OPS
…
Giants #4 w/ .780 OPS
The Giants bats are struggling in this postseason but they were great offensively in the last month so sooner or later they will wake up and today’s is a great spot for them. They know pretty well Leake and have great numbers against him: 104 AB’s, .327 BA & .938 OPS!
I’m playing the Over in here as my Double Dime Play!
NOTE: line available also @ 5 dimes -122 / 1.82
Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 927/928 Over 7.5 (w/ B. Zito & M. Leake) @ -113 / 1.88 on Pinnacle
MLB - 929 Baltimore Orioles @ 930 New York Yankees
(Starting Pitchers: M. Gonzalez vs H. Kuroda)
I like the Yankees tonight to get the lead in the series against the Orioles. They will face Miguel Gonzalez and I don’t think that Gonzalez will be quite ready to play in game of this magnitude against a Yankees offense that is producing lately with the lone exception of Alex Rodriguez who shouldn’t be batting in the 3rd spot.
Gonzalez is a fly ball pitcher w/ 42.6% FB% vs 34.9% FG vs 22.4 LD% splits this season so pitching in the Yankee stadium isn’t a good spot for him anyway. He had solid numbers in September even though his FIP & xFIP numbers were worst than his ERA: 3.97=FIP e 4.40=xFIP vs. 3.09 ERA. However he faced twice the Blue Jays and the Red Sox once so the level of the competition for him wasn’t that great.
In the regular season he faced the Yankees twice with mixed results: in the first one he was crushed w/ ERA=5.40 & FIP=6.54 but he bounced back in the second start and dominated the Yankees w/ ERA=0.00 & FIP=0.95. However note that the “great start” was in a time where the Yankees struggled badly and went 4-10 in a 14-games span so I wouldn’t grade that performance that high.
On the other side I clearly trust more in Kuroda than Gonzalez. Kuroda didn’t have a good month of September w/4.71 ERA but he was also one of the “unluckiest” pitchers in the league w/ BABIP=.355 – 5th worst mark in the league during that span:
Highest BABIP numbers in September/October:
Felix Hernandez .446
Patrick Corbin .365
Chris Sale .365
Ryan Dempster .356
Hiroki Kuroda .355
Edwin Jackson .354
He has good numbers against the Orioles hitters w/ .214 BA & .559 OPS so I think that the Yankees will have a considerable edge in the SP matchup and their superior experience will prevail tonight against a tough Baltimore team.
Gonzalez is a fly ball pitcher w/ 42.6% FB% vs 34.9% FG vs 22.4 LD% splits this season so pitching in the Yankee stadium isn’t a good spot for him anyway. He had solid numbers in September even though his FIP & xFIP numbers were worst than his ERA: 3.97=FIP e 4.40=xFIP vs. 3.09 ERA. However he faced twice the Blue Jays and the Red Sox once so the level of the competition for him wasn’t that great.
In the regular season he faced the Yankees twice with mixed results: in the first one he was crushed w/ ERA=5.40 & FIP=6.54 but he bounced back in the second start and dominated the Yankees w/ ERA=0.00 & FIP=0.95. However note that the “great start” was in a time where the Yankees struggled badly and went 4-10 in a 14-games span so I wouldn’t grade that performance that high.
On the other side I clearly trust more in Kuroda than Gonzalez. Kuroda didn’t have a good month of September w/4.71 ERA but he was also one of the “unluckiest” pitchers in the league w/ BABIP=.355 – 5th worst mark in the league during that span:
Highest BABIP numbers in September/October:
Felix Hernandez .446
Patrick Corbin .365
Chris Sale .365
Ryan Dempster .356
Hiroki Kuroda .355
Edwin Jackson .354
He has good numbers against the Orioles hitters w/ .214 BA & .559 OPS so I think that the Yankees will have a considerable edge in the SP matchup and their superior experience will prevail tonight against a tough Baltimore team.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 930 New York Yankees ML (w/ H. Kuroda) @ -164 / 1.61 on Bookmaker
MLB - 931 Detroit Tigers @ 932 Oakland Athletics
(Starting Pitchers: M. Scherzer vs A.J. Griffin)
Of all the AL teams, the Tigers are really a bad matchup for the Athletics just because their starting pitchers are all “strikeout” pitchers and that doesn’t bode well for the A’s offense.
Note that the A’s were #3 during the regular season in K%’s with 22.4% and even with a hot September, they just couldn’t avoid being K’ed by the opposing pitchers w/ 24.8% K%’s. Not surprisingly, in the first three games of this series, the Tigers pitchers had 14, 9 and 11 strikeouts against Oakland.
Today the task won’t be easy again for Oakland because they will face the league leader in K%’s in Max Scherzer w/ 11.08 K%. Scherzer suffered a minor injury late in September but because the Tigers locked the AL Central division sooner than they expected they didn’t use Scherzer’s quite much in his last start – just 4.0 IP so Scherzer will be rested and ready for today against a team in which he has good numbers: .232 BA and .617 OPS.
On the other side I expect the Tigers offense to bounce back tonight. Last night Anderson was a tough matchup for them as the Tigers are struggling to hit against LH pitchers this season but they won’t have this problem tonight against Griffin. The Tigers this season: .724 OPS vs LHP’s but .771 OPS vs RHP’s!
Griffin has been fading away lately and his advanced numbers are clearly worst than his ERA in September: ERA=3.82 but FIP=4.08 & xFIP=3.95. The Tigers potent offense against right handed hitters were already introduced to Griffin in September and they simply crushed him with 8 hits, 5 runs and 3 HR’s in just 4.2 innings.
Oakland’s story has been brilliant this season but they had to face the wrong opponent in the postseason.
Note that the A’s were #3 during the regular season in K%’s with 22.4% and even with a hot September, they just couldn’t avoid being K’ed by the opposing pitchers w/ 24.8% K%’s. Not surprisingly, in the first three games of this series, the Tigers pitchers had 14, 9 and 11 strikeouts against Oakland.
Today the task won’t be easy again for Oakland because they will face the league leader in K%’s in Max Scherzer w/ 11.08 K%. Scherzer suffered a minor injury late in September but because the Tigers locked the AL Central division sooner than they expected they didn’t use Scherzer’s quite much in his last start – just 4.0 IP so Scherzer will be rested and ready for today against a team in which he has good numbers: .232 BA and .617 OPS.
On the other side I expect the Tigers offense to bounce back tonight. Last night Anderson was a tough matchup for them as the Tigers are struggling to hit against LH pitchers this season but they won’t have this problem tonight against Griffin. The Tigers this season: .724 OPS vs LHP’s but .771 OPS vs RHP’s!
Griffin has been fading away lately and his advanced numbers are clearly worst than his ERA in September: ERA=3.82 but FIP=4.08 & xFIP=3.95. The Tigers potent offense against right handed hitters were already introduced to Griffin in September and they simply crushed him with 8 hits, 5 runs and 3 HR’s in just 4.2 innings.
Oakland’s story has been brilliant this season but they had to face the wrong opponent in the postseason.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 931 Detroit Tigers ML (w/ M. Scherzer) @ -104 / 1.96 on Betonline
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