MLB - 909 New York Yankees @ 910 Detroit Tigers
(Starting Pitchers: P. Hughes vs J. Verlander)
I like the Over in this contest as I don't think Verlander will be able to completely dominate the Yankees lineup the he did twice against the A's in the ALDS. Verlander was great but he logged 121 and 122 pitches in those games and had just 4 days to rest for this contest. I've made some research and during the regular season when Verlander had +240 pitches in back to back starts he usually struggled in the following start:
16/04 131 @ KC
21/04 115 TEX
27/04 @ NYY, 5days rest -> ERA=6.00, FIP=6.09, xFIP=3.96
03/06 114 NYY
09/06 127 @ CIN
14/06 @ CHC, 4 days rest -> ERA=2.25, FIP=1.09, xFIP=1.65
06/08 132 NYY
11/08 118 @ TEX
17/08 BAL, 5days rest -> ERA=4.50, FIP=5.26, xFIP=5.05
28/08 120 @ KC
02/09 124 CWS
08/09 @ LAA, 5 days rest -> ERA=9.00, FIP=5.26, xFIP=4.56
In 4 of those 5 spots Verlander had a FIP > 5.00 which is remarkable if we think that we are dealing with the best pitcher of the league. The Yankees had one day off to laid down a bit their mindset and actually playing on the road will be good for them. I've just checked their lineup for today and Alex Rodriguez is OUT so the Yankees will be on a better position for today. Note also that Verlander faced 3x the Yankees this season and in 2 of them he actually struggled against them.
On the other side Hughes made a good start against the Orioles after struggling in the past month. He doesn't pitch good w/ 4 days of rest and despite being good against BAL, his advanced numbers weren't that good: ERA=1.35 but FIP=3.99 & xFIP=4.25. He had also 11 flyball's vs 5 groundballs and this fits well on the potent Tigers lineup.
Hughes against Detroit this season:
ERA FIP xFIP
8.31 4.71 4.08
1.00 3.76 3.79
The current lineup of the Tigers are batting almost .300 BA against him and I don't think he will be able to shutdown a confident Tigers offense playing at home.
With the totals line set in just 7 runs I'm playing the OVER as my Single Dime Play.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 909/910 Over 7 (w/ P. Hughes vs J. Verlander) @ +111 / 2.11 on 5 Dimes
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