Projected Line: 34 points
I am definitely expecting a very low scoring game on this divisional game. San Francisco is coming from a very poor home loss last Sunday against the Giants and they'll try to bounce back against the Seahawks tonight. The main reason why the 49ers lost that game was due to Alex Smith, who had a rare poor game and threw three interceptions. That was the reason the Giants scored 26 points, as the 49ers allowed just 342 total yards to the Giants offense, with Eli Manning having just 193 passing yards and the Giants' running back gaining just 4.0 yards per carry. San Francisco continue to be #1 in the league in passing yards allowed per pass with 6.0 and even though Russell Wilson is coming from a great game against the Patriots, I don't believe Seattle's rookie QB will be able to do something similar tonight, on a letdown spot for him and while facing a much tougher defense in San Francisco. In fact, I expect the Seahawks to try to avoid unnecessary risks with Russell Wilson against such a dangerous defense by giving a huge workload to RB Marshawn Lynch, who should struggle tonight in having a good performance against the great run defense of the 49ers. Therefore, I believe Seattle will have a very tough offensive night against the great 49ers defense on a bounce back spot.
On the other side, I also expect San Francisco to struggle offensively tonight against another top defense in Seattle, who is perhaps the best defense in football right now. Alex Smith is coming from a very poor performance against the Giants and I believe he will try to avoid turnovers at any cost tonight and therefore, I don't expect him to take any risks tonight against a Seahawks pass defense that is only allowing 6.2 passing yards per pass attempt. Not only Seattle's secondary has been playing very well, as their pass rush is also being very impressive and against a struggling 49ers' Offensive Line, I believe Alex Smith will get sacked and hurried a good number of times tonight. So, it will be up to San Francisco's running game to lead the offense in most occasions tonight. But even though San Francisco is #1 on the league in rushing yards per carry with 6.0, the truth is that Seattle's run defense has been excellent this season by allowing just 3.3 rushing yards per carry to their opponents. On this very interesting matchup between an excellent run offense and an excellent run defense, I believe San Francisco will be able to have a decent production from their running game, but nothing impressive, as Seattle has been avoiding big plays very well this season. Therefore, with Alex Smith not taking a lot of risks, with the Seahawks' pass rush putting a lot of pressure on him and the 49ers running game being limited by Seattle's great run defense, I believe San Francisco won't be having a great offensive night.
With both teams struggling on offense against two of the best defenses in football, I believe this game will eventually become a low scoring affair, with both teams running the football a lot. I've come up with a totals line of 34 points for this contest, therefore I have enough edge to take the Under in here and that's what I'll be doing in here tonight.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 303/304 Under 38 @ -115 / 1.87 on Bovada
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