NFL Free Premium Play 10/21: Cleveland Browns @ Indianapolis Colts

Cleveland  at Indianapolis

NFL Week 7 - 419 Cleveland Browns @ 420 Indianapolis Colts Projected Line: Cleveland by 2 points It might sound crazy to take the Browns on the road in such a short spread. However, I believe Cleveland is really going to win their second game in a row today! They will be facing an Indianapolis team, whose rookie quarterback Andrew Luck is coming from a very poor game in NY against the Jets last Sunday. Even though Cleveland's pass defense hasn't been great, it's important to mention that they have been able to intercept their opposing quarterback a lot this season, so they will be a very tough opponent for Andrew Luck today, who even though is able to throw some good passes especially to Reggie Wayne, he is also prone to throw some poor passes that Cleveland's secondary is more than ready to take advantage of them. The situation of Andrew Luck becomes even more problematic due to the fact that his offensive line isn't very good and he will be facing a good Browns pass rush that should be able to put him under pressure, even though Luck has been impressive with his mobility. In terms of the running game, the Colts are generally a very poor team on this department and they only got worse since Donald Brown got sidelined with a knee injury. Therefore, I believe Indianapolis will be able to have some offensive production today via their passing game, but Andrew Luck is also likely to be intercepted a few times today. In terms of the Brown offense, Brandon Weeden has been able to produce some yardage on the team's passing game, however it is also true that he has been intercepted a considerable number of times this season. But the good news for Weeden today is that Indianapolis hasn't been able to intercept their opposing quarterbacks, with just two interceptions in five games! With the Colts being unlikely of taking advantage of Weeden's occasional poor passes, I believe Weeden will be able to have a solid game today, while taking advantage of the poor Colts' secondary and the fact that Indianapolis' best pass rush Robert Mathis is out with a knee injury. In the running game, Trent Richardson was limited in practice this week with a ribs injury, but he has a very favorable matchup against a poor Colts run defense, so I expect Cleveland to be able to have a good offensive game today. With both teams having a similar level, I believe it will be Cleveland's ability to force turnovers in opposition with Indianapolis' inability of taking advantage of the chances they have for a defensive big play that will decide this game. I believe Indianapolis will turn the ball over more times than Cleveland today and in such a tight game, this will make the difference. Therefore, I'll be taking the Browns in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 419 Cleveland Browns (+2) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bovada