Sunday, October 28, 2012

NFL Week 8 Free Premium Play 10/28: Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets

  
Miami  at NY Jets 
 
 
Play: Single Dime Play on Under 38,5
Comments:

NFL Week 8 - 231 Miami Dolphins @ 232 New York Jets

Projected Line: 35 points


I took the Under on the game between these two teams in Miami and we only lost it because the game went to overtime. On a similar matchup and with the weather being clearly worse today (rainy and windy day), I believe we have once have the ingredients for a very low scoring game in here. Mark Sanchez is coming from a decent game in New England last week, but he keeps being an overall poor quarterback with the clear inability of having a high percentage of completions. Now against a good Dolphins defense, who is coming from a bye week, I expect Sanchez to heavily struggle today against a team that has been quite good in stopping the opposing quarterbacks this season. And if Miami has been good against the pass, they are the best team in the league in stopping the run with just 3.3 rushing yards allowed per carry, so I really expect the Jets offense to have any kind of decent production today against a very good overall defensive team, who is coming from a bye week.

The problem with Miami is that their offense isn't looking good neither. Ryan Tannehill has been having some normal issues for a rookie quarterback and in a rainy and windy day, I don't expect him to have a good game against a team that even though they lost their best secondary player in Darrelle Revis, they are still a top 10 team against the pass. On the other hand, Daniel Thomas is returning to the field today, but Miami's running game has been regressing big time over the last few weeks after a very good start of the season. I know the Jets doesn't have a good run defense, but Miami is now just #24 on running game efficiency with 3.8 rushing yards per carry, so I don't expect the Dolphins to have a huge game on the running game today.

I believe this game will easily turn into a very physical divisional game, with both teams fighting on the field for the win. I believe both teams will use their running game a lot today, while both defenses will outplay both struggling offenses, therefore I expect this game to quickly turn into a low scoring game. Therefore, I'll be taking the Under in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 231/232 Under 38,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker 

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