Sunday, October 14, 2012

NFL Free Premium Play 10/14: Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns

  
Cincinnati   at Cleveland 
NFL Week 6 - 209 Cincinnati Bengals @ 210 Cleveland Browns

Projected Line: 40 points


I expect this divisional game to turn into a dogfight. Cleveland will be fighting for their first win of the season, while Cincinnati can't afford to lose for the second week in a row if they want to reach the playoffs this season. If we add the fact that the wind will be blowing at 20mph during the whole game, then we have the right ingredients for this game to turn into a very physical game and with both defenses being able to limit the offensive production of their opponents.

Brandon Weeden continues to be able to have some good yardage on his passing game, however he also keeps making some silly mistakes that eventually end up being turnovers. The Browns' Offensive Line has been quite reasonable this season, however they will be facing one of the best pass rushing teams in the league, therefore I expect to see Weeden being hurried and even sacked several times during this game. With Cleveland missing three wide receivers for this game (Mohamed Massaquoi, Jordan Norwood and Travis Benjamin), I believe Brandon Weeden will have a very tough game, especially when the Bengals' secondary has been improving over the past few games, after a very poor start of the season. In terms of the running game, Trent Richardson has been quite inconsistent and unable to have some huge plays, therefore I believe the Bengals run defense will also be able to limit him today, especially when they are coming from an excellent performance against the dangerous Dolphins' running game.

Andy Dalton has been having a good season, with some excellent combinations with A.J. Green, however Cleveland has a pass defense that is in the league's average for now and therefore, they should be able to limit the Bengals' production today in the passing game, especially with the wind causing problems to Dalton. To make things worse for the Bengals, their Offensive Line continues to have problems and Cleveland has a decent pass rush to take advantage of that. In terms of the running game, the Browns have been quite poor on run defense, however the Bengals' running game is equally poor and they just got even poorer by losing Bernard Scott for the season. BerJarvus Green-Ellis won't be able to put the Browns' defense in huge trouble on his own today.

Therefore, I expect both teams to have problems on offense. Cleveland should struggle in all areas on offense, while Cincinnati might have one or two big passing plays and that would be it. I'm expecting this game to be a low scoring one and so, I'll be taking the Under in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 209/210 Under 43,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

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