MLB - 937 Baltimore Orioles @ 938 New York Yankees
(Starting Pitchers: J. Saunders vs P. Hughes)
We have to give credit to Baltimore, as they have been very close from winning all games of this series just to see their closer allowing 5 runs in the 9th inning in game 1 and then, the closer again allowed a run in the 9th inning and send the game to extra innings, where the Orioles eventually lost in the 12th inning. Baltimore decided to start Saunders today instead of Tillman, as Saunders is a LH pitcher and the Yankees are prone to struggle against LH pitchers, as their best hitters against LHP are currently struggling: Jeter got injured last night, A Rod is slumping, Teixeira and Swisher are a bit better, while Cano and Ibanez have much better numbers against RH pitchers plus the bench also lacks hitting skills against LH pitchers. So, a LH pitcher is in theory a bad matchup for the Yankees tonight.
The problem is that the LHP starting for the Orioles will be Saunders, a flyball pitcher with no strikeout ability. He played in the wild card game in Texas and he looked good with one earned run and six hits allowed in 5.2 innings, however the Rangers lineup was completely unprepared for that game, they lost their head very easily and kept swinging at every pitch thrown. The Yankees are a much patient lineup, they aren't a desperate team as they are currently leading the series by 2-1, so I don't believe Saunders will leave NY tonight without allowing at least 3/4 runs. He throws 70% fastballs and with the Yankees being the best team in the league in hitting fastballs, I believe Saunders will heavily struggle tonight.
However, I don't count with an easy win for the Yankees tonight, as I don't expect Hughes to be any better on this outing. Hughes is a RH version of Saunders, a flyball guy who throws 65% fastballs. He had a 5.19 ERA in September and on his two starts against Baltimore, he allowed two and five earned runs, with a 3.00/3.59/3.63 and 9.00/6.49/3.64 ERA/FIP/xFIP. Weirdly, he is much worse against RH hitters than LH, as he is allowing .306 BA and 5.45 FIP against RH batters and .210 BA and 3.83 FIP against LH batters. Baltimore will have on their starting lineup 5 RH batters and 4 LH batters, therefore I expect them to also be able to put Hughes in trouble.
With both starting pitchers struggling and with the best bullpen players having been used yesterday (NYY: Soriano 1.1ip, Robertson 2.0ip; BAL: O'Day 1.0ip, JJ 2.0ip and Matusz 1.0ip), I believe this game will eventually become a high scoring contest, therefore I'll be taking the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 937/938 Over 8,5 (w/ J. Saunders & P. Hughes) @ -125 / 1.80 on 5Dimes
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