Monday, October 1, 2012

NFL Week 4 Premium Play 09/30: San Francisco 49ers @ New York Jets


NFL Week 4 - 211 San Francisco 49ers @ 212 New York Jets

Projected Line: San Francisco by 7 points

I believe in a very strong bounce back from San Francisco today, after losing at Minnesota last week. The Jets are the perfect opponent for the 49ers to have a very good bounce back and therefore, I expect them to have a very comfortable win today. San Francisco has a very good defense, with a lot of quality in all areas barring some minor struggles in the secondary at times. However, they will be facing a team whose QB doesn't have an accurate big arm to expose this weakness, therefore I expect the 49ers to dominate the Jets offense with ease. Mark Sanchez will suffer with San Francisco's continuous pressure and the Jets' running game is way too poor to do anything against the 49ers' excellent run defense.

On the other hand, I expect San Francisco to also bounce back offensively today. The Jets have been struggling on the run defense, with both Buffalo and Miami exposing them big time in previous weeks and things shouldn't be different today, with Frank Gore leading a running game full of quality to expose this weakness. With Darrelle Revis in the IR, the Jets lose a lot of quality on their secondary as well (as seen in week 2 at Pittsburgh) and San Francisco has a great receivers corps to expose that as well. The Jets' pass rush is quite unimpressive and therefore, Alex Smith won't feel very pressured today and he should be able to bounce back today and come back to the rock solid performances he uses to have.

With San Francisco also having a clear edge in terms of special teams, I really believe this should be a quite easy game for the 49ers, therefore I'll be taking them in here for a quite comfortable win.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 211 San Francisco 49ers (-4) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

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