NFL Week 5 - 431 Buffalo Bills @ 432 San Francisco 49ers
Projected Line: 48 points
I believe we have the right conditions in here to watch this game turn into a high scoring contest. San Francisco has been one of the best teams in the league this season and barring a poor performance in Minnesota, they have been very impressive in every game they've played this season. I don't expect that to be different today against a Buffalo team that has been very disappointing, especially on defense where they've been terrible. San Francisco has a very imaginative playbook on offense and they are basically able of doing everything on the field. Alex Smith bounced back very well last week from a poor performance against the Vikings and the team's passing game is now working very well with their improved receivers corps. The running game is also running smoothly with Frank Gore and his RB teammates being able to crush the opponents with their powerful running game. This should also happen today in here. Buffalo's defense has been terrible this season and their run defense has been so poor that even the Patriots rushed for almost 250 yards last week against them. I don't expect such a high number from the 49ers running game today, but something around 200 rushing yards can definitely happen today. If we combine this, with a very assertive passing game that can be productive while protecting the ball very well, I can only expect a massive offensive game from the 49ers today.
But I also expect a decent offensive game from Buffalo today. I know San Francisco has an insanely good run defense, however Buffalo has three running backs and their offensive line is really helping the team's running game in looking so impressive this season. Sure the Bills running game looked poor last week, but both Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller were returning from injuries, therefore they weren't physically at 100% for that game. They'll surely be better today and even though they won't have a huge game today, they should be able to have a couple of decent runs today, even though they will be facing a very good 49ers run defense. On the other hand, Ryan Fitzpatrick has been terrible in protecting the ball, but he has been able to have some decent yardage and in a game where San Francisco should have a decent lead since early in the game, I believe San Francisco will relax a bit on defense especially on the second half and allow the Bills to have some production in the passing game, especially considering the Bills have a decent receivers corps and San Francisco has some issues on the secondary, something that Minnesota was able to explore well two weeks ago.
I believe San Francisco will have a great offensive game today, while Buffalo should also have a decent production today due to their powerful running game plus a reasonable passing game, therefore I expect this game to turn into a high scoring contest and so, I'll be taking the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 431/432 Over 44,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
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