Portland Trailblazers NBA Season Preview 2012-13

PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS

Defrauded Expectations Last Season

2011-12 Regular Season Numbers:

Advanced Numbers				4 Factors
Overall	#'s	Rank		Offense	#'s	Rank	Defense	#'s	Rank
Pace	90.00	14		eFG% Off	48.8%	16	eFG% Def	50.5%	24
Offense	107.15	13		TO% Off	13.38	13	TO% Def	14.07	12
Defense	108.17	23		Reb% Off	26.14	20	Reb% Def	27.24	19
Rebound	49.45	21		FT% Off	21.30	12	FT% Def	20.10	10

Portland was considered to be one of the outsiders to win the Western conference. Brandon Roy wasn't in Portland anymore, but the Blazers had maintained Gerald Wallace, who has joined the team in the middle of the previous season, while in the offseason, Portland had signed two veteran players who would supposedly help the team: Raymond Felton and Jamal Crawford.

The Blazers led by Coach Nate McMillan were known for being a half court team, with excellent offensive execution, but McMillan wanted to change this philosophy by raising their tempo, as they had a lot of physical explosive players and for the first time in several years,, Portland stopped being one of the slowest teams in the league to be part of the top 15 in the league in terms of pace.

The problem was that this faster pace didn't result in a bigger offensive efficiency, as Portland was just #27 in transition plays with just 1.09 PPP. The Blazers surprised the league at the beginning of the season with this new style, but as soon as the league adapted to their changes, Portland stopped being competitive.

Portland Trailblazers month-by-month record:

Months	W	L	PACE	Off. H	Off. A	Reb% H
January	12	9	91.9	105.1	100.5	51.2
February	6	8	89.6	109.1	104.1	47.6
March	6	11	87.4	107.2	115.8	49.1
April	4	10	90.7	108.3	114.5	49.1

Portland’s regression was obvious in several areas: the team stopped being a good rebounding team, the defense got worse and especially their players were just too inconsistent and their effort was questionable in some moments of the season. Most of the players didn't have long term deal with the Blazers and perhaps they simply started thinking more about themselves than on the team’s success. Portland started losing games in an unexpected way like a 109-124 loss against Washington or 110-122 against Minnesota with both games being at home until two road losses in a row by 17 and 42 points caused the release of Coach McMillan. With their interim Coach Canales, the Blazers didn't improve and so, the team started thinking about their future.

Offseason moves 2012-13:

The preparation for this season started before the end of last season. Portland decided to send Gerald Wallace for the Nets and Marcus Camby for the Rockets and in exchange, the Blazers got some future draft picks.

Already on this offseason, team’s owner Paul Allen hired former Clippers GM Neil Olshey, while Terry Stotts was chosen as their new Head Coach.

As expected, Raymond Felton and Jamal Crawford didn't receive any offer from the Blazers to remain in the team, as Portland decided to invest in the draft and sign a good number of young players. Nicolas Batum was the only player that was resigned on this offseason, as Portland matched a good offer he had received from Minnesota.

On this draft, the Blazers chose as their priorities the PG and the Center positions and so, they chose the PG Damian Lillard as the 6^th overall pick and the Center Meyers Leonard with the 11^th pick. Already in the second round, Portland chose Will Barton and Tyshawn Taylor.

The team also signed some backups for their roster, but their main goal for this season will be to develop their rookies, while trying to remain competitive, in a division that will have a lot of quality this season.

Is LaMarcus Aldridge an Elite Player?

Aldridge transitioned from being a complement to Brandon Roy in the team to be their biggest star over the last two seasons. He basically maintained the same numbers he had achieved in the previous season and we are talking about a very efficient player on offense, as he shot 51.2% FG, while not shooting exclusively near the basket. In fact, Aldridge attempted 6.2 FGA from 16-23 feet versus 5.1 FGA at the rim, but the good news is that he was efficient by shooting from the perimeter by shooting 43% FG from 16-23 feet last season – a career high!

He was forced to play at the Center position in several games last season and his defensive progress has been evident. Portland was considerably worse in both the offense and defense when Aldridge wasn’t on the court, which shows his huge importance on the team.

In my opinion, LMA is part of the restrict group of the best 25 players in the league and his role in Portland this season will be especially to confirm himself as the team’s leader, while helping the rookies to develop as quickly as possible.

Will the Rookies have a real impact this Season?

Damian Lillard impressed in the NBA Summer League by being elected co-MVP in the Summer League played in Las Vegas. He is a PG who is more of a scorer than a playmaker and he possesses a body that is already NBA ready, so it won’t be a surprise if he quickly adapts to the league.

Meyers Leonard will be Portland’s second attempt at having a dominant center over the last few seasons after Greg Oden. Leonard will benefit from playing alongside a player with the caliber of Aldridge. He needs to improve offensively, but his mobility combined with good defensive instincts makes him a player with a lot of potential and if he is able to escape the Portland’s “curse”, then the Blazers will be well served for the future on this position.

We can also expect some surprises from SG Will Barton throughout the season. In July, Portland’s new GM revealed a conversation he had with the team’s owner Paul Allen where he stated “I still have no idea how Will got to 40” and “Paul Allen started asking us to trade up at around 22 to get him”.

Final Thoughts

Wesley Matthews and Nicolas Batum will be together with LaMarcus Aldridge the only key players that remain in Portland from last season.

It was expected that Batum would have a breakout season last year, but that didn’t happen. Maybe the fact that he had to share minutes with Gerald Wallace didn’t help him, but the truth is that Batum is yet to have the breakthrough most people expect him to have. He basically replicated the numbers he had in the previous season, with the curiosity that the team was clearly worse on defense with him on the court than with him on the bench. With Wallace now in New Jersey, this will be the first season where Batum will likely score more than 15 points per game. In fact, the same happened with Wesley Matthews with Jamal Crawford’s presence on the team.

Depending from Lillard’s and Leonard’s development, Portland may be a dangerous team on the West, but their lack of depth, especially on the frontcourt, may become a problem for the team, as giving minutes to players like Hickson and Jeffries won’t benefit them at all.

The last place on their division will be the most likely fate for Portland, but this should be the first part of a rebuilding process that Portland started in the middle of the last season.
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Atlantic Division                                                      Northwest Division

Boston Celtics                                                         Denver Nuggets
Brooklyn Nets                                                          Minnesota Timberwolves
New York Knicks                                                     Oklahoma City Thunder       
Philadelphia 76ers                                                  Portland Trailblazers
Toronto Raptors                                                      Utah Jazz


Southeast Division                                                  Southwest Division  

Atlanta Hawks                                                        Dallas Mavericks
Charlotte Bobcats                                                  Houston Rockets
Miami Heat                                                            Memphis Grizzlies
Orlando Magic                                                       New Orleans Hornets
Washington Wizards                                              San Antonio Spurs


Central Division                                                     Pacific Division

Chicago Bulls                                                          Golden State Warriors
Cleveland Cavaliers                                                Los Angeles Clippers
Detroit Pistons                                                         Los Angeles Lakers
Indiana Pacers                                                        Phoenix Suns
Milwaukee Bucks                                                    Sacramento Kings