Projected Line: 44 points
After a Sunday where the unexpected happened in almost every game, I believe things will get back to normal tonight, with a divisional game between two playoff contenders being a hard-fought game. San Diego is coming from a loss on Sunday Night Football in New Orleans and they will try to bounce back tonight at home against the Broncos. Philip Rivers has been having a positive season, however his deep passes aren't working very well and this is why the Chargers are just ranked #14 in Y/A with 7.4 yards per pass. They'll be facing a Broncos defense that has been reasonable against the pass and whose pass rush has been quite effective and should cause some problems to San Diego's offensive line, who has been showing some troubles over the last few weeks. Therefore, I believe Philip Rivers will be pressured a lot tonight and even though he may have a positive game, he should struggle once again in the deep passes, especially with both Malcom Floyd and Eddie Royal physically limited and questionable for tonight. In terms of the running game, the Chargers have a decent but quite unimpressive running game and the Broncos have been quite reasonable in stopping the run this season, therefore I don't expect a big game from the Chargers' running backs tonight.
It's clear that Peyton Manning has been having a very good season, especially for someone who missed the entire last season due to injury. However, it is also clear that his passing game isn't being as deep as it used to be in Indianapolis and that's clear with the stat that the Broncos are just ranked #11 in Y/A with 7.6 yards per pass. Peyton is taking less risks as well and he has been more conservative than usual. He will be protected by a quality offensive line that should be able to handle the Chargers' front seven quite well, however San Diego has been able to avoid big passing from his opponents quite well by being ranked #8 in Y/A with 6.7 yards per pass allowed. Therefore, I expect Peyton Manning to lead the Broncos to long drives, where he should be able to have a relatively high percentage of completions, but without being able to have a considerable number of big passes. The Broncos running game has been average with Willis McGahee and the Chargers have been quite decent actually against the run this season, therefore I don't expect to see the Broncos' running game being able to give a lot of support to the team's passing game tonight.
I expect this contest to be a hard fought game, with both teams being able to execute their passing game with assertiveness, but without a lot of big plays. Both Rivers and Manning should be able to be very solid tonight, with a good percentage of completions, but with their passing game not being deep enough to make this game a high scoring game. I expect long drives tonight and some nerves at clutch moments causing this game to be a relatively low scoring one. Therefore, I'll be taking the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 233/234 Under 48 @ -105 / 1.95 on Bovada
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