MLB - 941 St Louis Cardinals @ 942 Washington Nationals
(Starting Pitchers: A. Wainwright vs G. Gonzalez)
We have a good matchup tonight with Gio Gonzalez going head to head against Adam Wainwright. On the Game 1 of this series, Gio showed some control issues by walking seven batters. Back in Oakland, Gonzalez was a very talented pitcher but he always had a problem in controlling his fastballs. He has been eventually better at home than on the road, but he has also a 3.15 ERA in 4 days rest games, while he has a 2.25 ERA with 5 days rest. St Louis is a top 3 team in hitting against LH pitchers and even though I expect Gio to be better on his control issues than he was back in Game 1, the Cardinals has a very dangerous lineup.
On the other hand, Wainwright didn't look very good in September, but it looks like he turned on his chip on his last start in the regular season against the Nationals with 1.50 ERA/1.93 FIP and 3.89 xFIP! Plus on the Game 1 of this series, he had 10 strikeouts in just 5.1 innings! Unlike Gio, Wainwright has a 3.31 ERA with 4 days rest, 4.41 ERA in 5 days rest and 5.21 ERA in +6 days rest! He has more playoffs experience than Gonzalez and he has great numbers in the postseason. ERA wise, Wainwright is better at home (3.73 ERA) than on the road (4.20 ERA), but that doesn't happen in the advanced numbers, as he has a 3.15 FIP at home and a 3.04 FIP on the road! He will face a Washington lineup that includes a lot of slumping batters: Harper .056 BA, LaRoche .154 BA, Morse .200, Espinosa .083 and Suzuki .077! Therefore, I expect Wainwright to dominate the Nationals tonight.
Washington doesn't have the same pedigree than the Cardinals and in a scenario where St Louis has an early lead, Washington will quickly lost its composure. But if the opposite happens, then the reigning champions Cardinals have enough pedigree to perform a comeback if necessary. Washington has homecourt edge and this might be important, but no way they deserve to be a -130 favorite in here. I see a lot of value in St Louis tonight and therefore, I'll be taking them in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 941 St Louis Cardinals ML (w/ A. Wainwright) @ +121 / 2.21 on 5Dimes
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