Projected Line: Minnesota by 2 points
Even though there is a considerable difference between the current records of both teams, I don't believe there is a big difference in terms of the level of these two teams right now. Minnesota currently holds a 5-2 record, but they are definitely playing worse than the record indicates. Christian Ponder has started to struggled and he has thrown six interceptions over the last three games, after not throwing a single pick on the first four games of the season. His performance against Arizona last Sunday where he had just 58 passing yards shows that perhaps his knee injury is troubling him. He will be facing a Bucs pass defense that is indeed struggling this season, however they have also intercepted the opposing quarterback nine times in six games and Ponder's 6.6 yards per pass attempt surely don't scare Tampa Bay. On the other hand, Adrian Peterson has also skipped a practice this week due to a sore ankle and after a considerable workload last Sunday against the Cardinals (23 carries), I don't expect him to be impressive tonight against the best run defense in the league, who are just allowing 3.1 rushing yards per carry this season. Therefore, I expect Minnesota to struggle offensively tonight, just like they struggled last week against Arizona.
The problem for the Vikings is that Tampa Bay doesn't have a poor offense like Arizona. Josh Freeman may struggle in having a high percentage of completions, but he is good in connecting big passes, especially with his main receiver Vincent Jackson. Their running game led by Doug Martin is also quite interesting and their offensive line has only allowed 10 sacks this season, very far from the 35 sacks Arizona has already allowed their opponents this season. Therefore, I don't expect Minnesota to be able to compensate their offensive struggles with a shutdown on defense. Tampa Bay's offense has too much quality for the Vikings to completely stop them, on a similar way that they did last Sunday against Arizona.
I believe the Vikings will start regressing very quickly on the second half of the season and I believe it will start tonight. They got away with a terrible offensive performance last week against Arizona, but I don't expect the same to happen tonight against Tampa Bay. I expect Christian Ponder to struggle again, while Adrian Peterson has a tough matchup against the current leader on rushing yards allowed per carry, therefore a simple average performance from the Bucs offense tonight will put Minnesota in a lot of trouble. I expect that to happen on this contest and so, I'll be taking Tampa Bay in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 103 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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