Thursday, October 18, 2012

MLB Premium Play 10/17: New York Yankees @ Detroit Tigers


MLB - 913 New York Yankees @ 914 Detroit Tigers

(Starting Pitchers: C. Sabathia vs M. Scherzer)

The Yankees will start CC Sabathia, who has been amazing on this postseason, with two excellent outings against Baltimore that put him with a 1.53 ERA, 1.79 FIP and 3.21 xFIP on the playoffs. Sabathia is a tough matchup for Detroit, as they struggle against LH pitchers and they are just hitting 2.55 BA against him. Already on this season, Detroit faced Sabathia three times this season and he allowed just 3, 3 and 2 earned runs to the Tigers. Sabathia is currently on his best moment of the season right now and he will go deep in the game for sure. If the Yankees lose today, it won't be because Scherzer outpitched Sabathia. 

Detroit will start Scherzer, who had 6 days off for tonight. He looked very good on his start against Oakland on his only postseason start for now, with 0.00 ERA, 0.66 FIP and 1.76 xFIP. He dominated early on, but he had some struggles in the 5th inning, where Detroit's coach panicked and decided to remove him from the game with just 91 pitches thrown. The fact that he didn't throw yesterday shows that Detroit has some doubts about his shoulder's health. Yesterday, Verlander went deep in the game, so Detroit's bullpen will be extra rested for today. Scherzer will also be a tough matchup for the Yankees, as their offense is washed up choosing to swing against bad pitches and Scherzer is a top 3 SP in K%'s in the league! The Yankees' roster is just hitting .214 BA and .617 OPS against Scherzer, so I expect him to dominate the Yankees tonight.

Therefore, with both pitchers dominating, I expect a low scoring game tonight, with CC Sabathia outdueling Scherzer. So, I'll be taking both the Yankees and the Under in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 913 New York Yankees ML (w/ C. Sabathia) @ -116 / 1.86 on Betonline
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 913/914 Under 7 (w/ C. Sabathia & M. Scherzer) @ -120 / 1.83 on Bookmaker

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