Projected Line: Minnesota by 10 points
I expect this game to be an easy one for Minnesota. Christian Ponder is coming from a bad week in Washington, but that was mostly due to the fact his team was clearly down in the score that he needed to take a lot of risks, something he isn't good at. Now against a much worse opponent in terms of offense, it's very unlikely that Minnesota's defense will allow a big number of points, so I expect Ponder to be able to return to his very solid performances, where he is able to have a very high percentage of completions by connecting mostly with his tight end Kyle Rudolph. In terms of running game, Adrian Peterson will face an average Cardinals run defense, therefore I also expect a solid game from him today. Therefore, I believe Minnesota will have a quite solid offensive game today.
On the other hand, I expect Arizona's offense to massively struggle today. With Kevin Kolb out due to a ribs injury, John Skelton is back into the lineup, but I expect him to have a very hard day. Not only he has been terrible in the two games he has played this season, as Arizona's offensive line has allowed a ridiculous 22 sacks over their last three games! Now facing the Vikings, who have a good pass rush led by Jared Allen, I can only expect John Skelton to be constantly pressured on this game and he isn't good enough to be a solid quarterback while being under a lot of pressure, so I expect him to throw some interceptions today. In terms of the running game, with both Beanie Wells and Ryan Williams in the injury reserve, I don't expect the Cardinals' running game to make any kind of impact of this game against a very solid Vikings run defense. Therefore, I expect the Cardinals to struggle in putting points on the board today, while I also expect John Skelton to turn the ball over a few times today.
With Minnesota being able to have a solid offensive game, while the Cardinals will heavily struggle on offense today, I believe the Vikings have an excellent matchup today to bounce back after a poor loss in Washington last week. Therefore, I expect an easy win for Minnesota and so, I'll be taking them in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 418 Minnesota Vikings (-7) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NFL Week 7 - 419 Cleveland Browns @ 420 Indianapolis Colts
Projected Line: Cleveland by 2 points
It might sound crazy to take the Browns on the road in such a short spread. However, I believe Cleveland is really going to win their second game in a row today! They will be facing an Indianapolis team, whose rookie quarterback Andrew Luck is coming from a very poor game in NY against the Jets last Sunday. Even though Cleveland's pass defense hasn't been great, it's important to mention that they have been able to intercept their opposing quarterback a lot this season, so they will be a very tough opponent for Andrew Luck today, who even though is able to throw some good passes especially to Reggie Wayne, he is also prone to throw some poor passes that Cleveland's secondary is more than ready to take advantage of them. The situation of Andrew Luck becomes even more problematic due to the fact that his offensive line isn't very good and he will be facing a good Browns pass rush that should be able to put him under pressure, even though Luck has been impressive with his mobility. In terms of the running game, the Colts are generally a very poor team on this department and they only got worse since Donald Brown got sidelined with a knee injury. Therefore, I believe Indianapolis will be able to have some offensive production today via their passing game, but Andrew Luck is also likely to be intercepted a few times today.
In terms of the Brown offense, Brandon Weeden has been able to produce some yardage on the team's passing game, however it is also true that he has been intercepted a considerable number of times this season. But the good news for Weeden today is that Indianapolis hasn't been able to intercept their opposing quarterbacks, with just two interceptions in five games! With the Colts being unlikely of taking advantage of Weeden's occasional poor passes, I believe Weeden will be able to have a solid game today, while taking advantage of the poor Colts' secondary and the fact that Indianapolis' best pass rush Robert Mathis is out with a knee injury. In the running game, Trent Richardson was limited in practice this week with a ribs injury, but he has a very favorable matchup against a poor Colts run defense, so I expect Cleveland to be able to have a good offensive game today.
With both teams having a similar level, I believe it will be Cleveland's ability to force turnovers in opposition with Indianapolis' inability of taking advantage of the chances they have for a defensive big play that will decide this game. I believe Indianapolis will turn the ball over more times than Cleveland today and in such a tight game, this will make the difference. Therefore, I'll be taking the Browns in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 419 Cleveland Browns (+2) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bovada
NFL Week 7 - 423 Green Bay Packers @ 424 St Louis Rams
Projected Line: Green Bay by 2 points
While most people are predicting Green Bay to crush the Rams on this game, mostly due to their amazing performance last Sunday Night in Houston, I actually expect them to have a letdown today. I believe most people haven't realized this, but the Rams are a very improved team this season. Sam Bradford has been very solid by avoiding turnovers very well, while he has been able to throw the occasional big pass as well. Their running game is looking better week after week, especially now that Steven Jackson looks totally recovered from a groin injury that was slowing him down. I know Green Bay has a very good pass rush that they should put a lot of pressure on Sam Bradford today, but the Rams' running game should be able to give a lot of problems to the Packers today, especially when Green Bay will be missing LB Nick Perry, DT B.J. Raji and LB D.J. Smith in their front seven plus CB Sam Shields in the secondary.
Aaron Rodgers looked amazing last week like he looked for most of the last season, however I believe in a minor letdown for him today, especially when he will be playing on a very noisy dome and he will continue missing his number one receiver Greg Jennings. The Rams' pass defense has been looking quite decent this season and their secondary let by CB Cortland Finnegan has been able to make some huge defensive plays, so I wouldn't be surprised to see Aaron Rodgers getting intercepted a couple of times today, especially when the Rams pass rush should be able to put some pressure on him. In terms of the Packers running game, with Cedric Benson on the injury reserve, I don't expect Green Bay to be able to have a good performance in the running department today.
Even though Green Bay is definitely a better team than St Louis, not only the Rams have a better spot for today, as they have the right pieces to slow down the Packers offense, while they should also be able to have a decent offensive game today, especially via their running game. Therefore, I expect a very close game today and so, I'll be taking the Rams plus the points in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 424 St Louis Rams (+6) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bovada
NFL Week 7 - 429 New Orleans Saints @ 430 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Projected Line: Tampa Bay by 3 points
Even though this is a good spot for New Orleans, who are coming from a bye week, I believe the Saints' problems can't be solved in just one week and that they are into a very problematic game today in Tampa Bay. The Bucs have been playing quite well this season and even though Josh Freeman hasn't been very impressive, especially in terms of percentage of completions, the truth is that he has been able to throw some occasional big passes, especially to Vincent Jackson. Freeman is coming from his best game of the season so far last week against Kansas City and I believe he will have no problems in leading the team to another good offensive game today against the poor Saints defense. This should also happen in the running game, where the Bucs have Doug Martin as a decent running back, who should have no problems in outplaying the poor Saints run defense as well.
On the other side, Drew Brees has been disappointing this season and he has been clearly far from the level he showed in the previous last seasons. I know Tampa Bay's secondary isn't good and therefore Brees will definitely throw some good passes today, however he will be without TE Jimmy Graham today and I believe Brees will eventually a couple of interceptions today, as he has been quite irregular this season and the Bucs have been able to intercept the opposing quarterbacks quite often this season. This gets even more likely when we know that the Saints' passing game will be very pressured to work very well today, as the Saints are very unlikely to have any kind of decent production on their running game today while facing the best run defense in the league so far! With the Saints run defense not working and with such a poor defense, New Orleans won't be able to remain competitive today just with an irregular Drew Brees giving the team any kind of decent production today.
I believe Tampa Bay is right now more solid than New Orleans and therefore, I don't agree that they should be a home underdog against the Saints today, even though they are coming from a bye week. I see the Bucs as the better team right now and so, I'll be taking them in here today.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 430 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bovada
NFL Week 7 - 431 New York Jets @ 432 New England Patriots
Projected Line: New England by 14 points
I expect this game to be a complete blowout for the Patriots. After losing in Seattle last week, New England will be trying to bounce back today against the Jets. Even though the team from NY had a decent pass defense, even without Darrelle Revis, I don't believe they will be able to handle the Patriots' great passing game, especially now that they have all their receivers healthy and a quality running game to make the team's offense very well-balanced. Speaking of running game, the Patriots should also be able to have another great performance on this department today, as the Jets run defense has been quite poor this season. Therefore, I expect Tom Brady and his receivers to have a good game today, while the same should happen with Stevan Ridley on the running game.
In terms of the Jets offense, I expect them to struggle today. Mark Sanchez has been very inconsistent this season, with a very low percentage of completions and I don't expect him to play well today while being pressured to throw the football because they are down in the score. So, I would be very surprised if he doesn't throw a couple of interceptions today. On the other hand, the Jets running game had a huge game against the poor Colts run defense last week, but the truth is that the Jets' running game is generally quite poor and they'll be facing a team today who is surprisingly a top 3 run defense in rushing yards per carry allowed this season! Therefore, with Mark Sanchez struggling and with their running game facing a very good Patriots run defense, I don't believe the Jets will have any kind of offensive production today.
With the Patriots having the necessary conditions to have a good offensive game and with the Jets being very likely to struggle offensively once again, I believe we have the right ingredients to watch a blowout win for New England today and so, I'll be taking them in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 432 New England Patriots (-10) @ -120 / 1.83 on 5Dimes
NFL Week 7 - 435 Pittsburgh Steelers @ 436 Cincinnati Bengals
Projected Line: Cincinnati by 3 points
On this divisional game that most people expect to be very close, I believe Cincinnati has the necessary conditions to finally defeat Pittsburgh after losing the last four games against the Steelers. Andy Dalton has been having a good season, where he has been able to throw the football very deep in the game with some great combination with A.J. Green. The problem with that has been the interceptions Dalton has been throwing as well, however Pittsburgh has only intercepted the opposing quarterback twice this season and with their main defensive playmaker Troy Polamalu out with a calf injury, I don't expect this to change anytime soon. So, even though BenJarvus Green-Ellis is unlikely to give a lot of support to the team's offense today, I expect Cincinnati to be able to have a decent amount of offensive production today against a Steelers defense that has definitely lived better days in the recent past.
Ben Roethlisberger has been having a solid season and looking at the fact that the Bengals secondary has been quite poor this season, it's quite possible that Pittsburgh will have a good night on the passing game tonight. However, there are two problems that the Steelers offense will have to deal with. First of all, the Bengals have one of the best pass rushes in football and not only Pittsburgh's offensive line is known for struggling against aggressive front sevens, as Roethlisberger is known for taking a lot of time to throw the football, something that will give more time to the Bengals to get to him and sack him. Therefore, I expect Big Ben to be very pressured today and have a tough night because of that. The other problems the Steelers' offense will have today is the fact that their main two running backs Rashard Mendenhall and Isaac Redman won't play tonight. This should force the already poor Steelers' running game into a residual production today, so even more pressure under Roethlisberger's shoulders.
I believe Cincinnati will take advantage of Pittsburgh's injuries to outplay them, with the Andy Dalton/A.J. Green combination putting the Steelers in severe problems today, while Ben Roethlisberger will struggle today by being under tremendous pressure of the Bengals pass rush and with no support from the running game. Therefore, I'll be taking Cincinnati in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 436 Cincinnati Bengals (+1,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bovada
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