Projected Line: 36 points
While most people are predicting a massive blowout for the Texans tonight, I actually believe this game might turn to be a bit closer than expected and therefore I agree with the current spread line that puts Houston as a ten points favorite for tonight. However, I don't agree with the totals line, as I expect this game to turn into an ugly low scoring contest.
The Jets offense is a complete mess right now, no doubt about that. Mark Sanchez is lacking confidence, he can't even have 50% of completions during the games and he is now without WR Santonio Holmes for the season and also TE Dustin Keller and WR Stephen Hill are unlikely to play tonight. With Sanchez lacking confidence and with the support of a poor and depleted receivers corps, I believe Houston will completely stop the Jets passing game, especially considering we are talking about one of the best pass defenses in the league, if not the best overall. The Texans have also a good run defense and against the poor running game of the Jets, I can also only expect the Jets to fail miserably in running the football tonight. Therefore, with the Jets struggling in both the passing and the running game, I expect them to have another terrible offensive game, just like it happened last week against San Francisco.
On the other hand, Houston has a very interesting offense, but they have a quite conservative playbook, as they run the football a lot by using Arian Foster, who is having a solid season, but just helping the Texans gain an average of 3.7 yards per carry. With Ben Tate doubtful for tonight, I believe Arian Foster will have more carries today and have a solid but yet unspectacular game tonight. Their passing game is used less often, with Andre Johnson being the team's main receiver and with Matt Schaub being also a very solid quarterback, but without a massive number of yards gained per game. I believe Houston will continue using this philosophy tonight, especially with the Jets having a worse run defense than pass defense, even with Darrelle Revis out for the season. The Jets will be definitely making a super defensive effort to stay competitive tonight for at least most of the game and therefore, I believe they should be able to prevent Houston from having huge plays on their offense tonight.
With the Jets very likely to have another very poor offensive and Houston having a solid but not super offensive game, I believe this game will quickly turn into an ugly low scoring contest. Therefore, I'll be taking the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 435/436 Under 41 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bovada
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