MLB Free Premium Play 10/10: Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees

Baltimore  at New York

MLB - 929 Baltimore Orioles @ 930 New York Yankees (Starting Pitchers: M. Gonzalez vs H. Kuroda) I like the Yankees tonight to get the lead in the series against the Orioles. They will face Miguel Gonzalez and I don’t think that Gonzalez will be quite ready to play in game of this magnitude against a Yankees offense that is producing lately with the lone exception of Alex Rodriguez who shouldn’t be batting in the 3rd spot. Gonzalez is a fly ball pitcher w/ 42.6% FB% vs 34.9% FG vs 22.4 LD% splits this season so pitching in the Yankee stadium isn’t a good spot for him anyway. He had solid numbers in September even though his FIP & xFIP numbers were worst than his ERA: 3.97=FIP e 4.40=xFIP vs. 3.09 ERA. However he faced twice the Blue Jays and the Red Sox once so the level of the competition for him wasn’t that great. In the regular season he faced the Yankees twice with mixed results: in the first one he was crushed w/ ERA=5.40 & FIP=6.54 but he bounced back in the second start and dominated the Yankees w/ ERA=0.00 & FIP=0.95. However note that the “great start” was in a time where the Yankees struggled badly and went 4-10 in a 14-games span so I wouldn’t grade that performance that high. On the other side I clearly trust more in Kuroda than Gonzalez. Kuroda didn’t have a good month of September w/4.71 ERA but he was also one of the “unluckiest” pitchers in the league w/ BABIP=.355 – 5th worst mark in the league during that span: Highest BABIP numbers in September/October: Felix Hernandez .446 Patrick Corbin .365 Chris Sale .365 Ryan Dempster .356 Hiroki Kuroda .355 Edwin Jackson .354 He has good numbers against the Orioles hitters w/ .214 BA & .559 OPS so I think that the Yankees will have a considerable edge in the SP matchup and their superior experience will prevail tonight against a tough Baltimore team. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 930 New York Yankees ML (w/ H. Kuroda) @ -164 / 1.61 on Bookmaker