NFL Week 8 - 241 New Orleans Saints @ 242 Denver Broncos
Projected Line: Denver by 9 points
I know a lot of people that are believing that Drew Brees will be able to make this game competitive almost on his own, but I don't expect that to happen, as Denver is clearly a much better team than New Orleans right now plus they are a much better spot for tonight as well. Peyton Manning has been having an excellent season and he has been particularly good at home games, even though he has faced good defensive teams like the Steelers and the Texans in those games. Now against the catastrophically bad defense of the Saints today, I believe that Peyton Manning and his receivers will have a field day, especially with them coming from a bye week. Also don't be surprised if the overall poor running game of the Broncos also has a good game today, as the Saints' run defense isn't better than their pass defense.
On the other hand, it's a fact that Drew Brees will have some good passes today and the Saints won't leave this game without scoring some touchdowns. The problem is to know if the Saints will be able to keep up with Denver on the score, with the Broncos absolutely pounding the Saints defense the whole game. And I don't believe that will happen. First of all, the Saints will struggle to have any kind of support from the running game. Not only they have getting very low efficiency from their running backs this season, as Denver has a good run defense that will limit the Saints' running game to very low numbers today. And more important than that, Denver has a good pass rush and a decent pass defense that will definitely make a much better job at defending Brees' passes than the clueless Saints against Peyton's passes. Plus let's not forget that Brees is more used to play on domes and in the warm weather of Florida like last week than on a cold night in Denver, where I expect him to struggle a bit in being at their regular level.
Even though we are in presence of two very good passing teams, that's the only similarity between them for this contest. Denver has a better running game, a better run defense, a better pass defense and a better pass plus they are coming from a bye week and so, they have also a much better spot for tonight. New Orleans was lucky on their last two games against San Diego and Tampa Bay, but now against a good team like the Broncos, I expect them to get exposed and clearly outscored on a high scoring game. Therefore, I'll be taking the Broncos tonight.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 242 Denver Broncos (-6) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
2-Team 6pts Teaser:
NFL Week 8 - 219 New England Patriots @ 220 St Louis Rams
NFL Week 8 - 233 Carolina Panthers @ 234 Chicago Bears
Even though St Louis is officially playing at home today, this game will be played in London, where New England actually has a very big fanbase, so if a team is really playing at home on this game, that team will be the Patriots. New England is coming from a home win over the Jets, in a game where they had a fourth quarter meltdown and almost lost the game. With the AFC East being so competitive this season, the 4-3 Patriots can't afford to lose today against an average team like the Rams and I don't believe they will. The Rams have been looking decent on defense, but they can't handle the high paced offense of the Patriots, while the Rams will struggle to make any kind of impact with their running game struggling against the surprisingly good run defense of New England. I know Sam Bradford should be able to throw a couple of good passes today, as the Patriots' pass defense is still a bit weak, however Sam Bradford won't outscore the Patriots' potent offense on his own, that's for sure. With more or less difficulties, New England will be winning this game.
I believe this game will indeed be statistically close, however I expect Chicago to be able once again to force a couple of turnovers and win this game comfortably due to a quite positive turnover margin. Jay Cutler has been quite average this season, with just some occasional good passes to Brandon Marshall, but he has been solid and the combination of that with an efficient running game and an elite defense has been enough for the Bears to keep winning week after week. This week should be no exception. Carolina has a lot of talent on offense, but they're also quite inconsistent and always ready to make a silly mistake at the wrong moment. Cam Newton has been a specialist of that this season and I believe he will struggle once again today against a Bears team that has been excellent in terms of takeaways this season. I believe Chicago's much more solid football will get a comfortable win over a talented but inconsistent Panthers team. With Green Bay starting to play much better over the past few weeks, Chicago can't afford to lose easy games and so, I believe they will have another solid win today.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 219 New England Patriots (-1) x 234 Chicago Bears (-1,5) @ -120 / 1.83 on Bookmaker
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