MLB Premium Card 10/14

MLB - 905 Detroit Tigers @ 906 New York Yankees

(Starting Pitchers: A. Sanchez vs H. Kuroda)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 905/906 Over 8 (w/ A. Sanchez & H. Kuroda) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

MLB - 903 St Louis Cardinals @ 904 San Francisco Giants

(Starting Pitchers: L. Lynn vs M. Bumgarner)

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

We are in presence of two red hot offenses as they were supposed to be due to their quality. San Francisco had two horrible offensive games at home, but after they won Game 3 in Cincinnati, the Giants showed more confidence on their hitting and scored 8 and 6 runs on the last two games of the series. On the other hand, St Louis is coming from an incredible comeback in Washington, where they offense scored 12, 8 and 9 runs in three of their last four games, so we have two teams in here with good offensive momentum right now.

San Francisco will start Bumgarner, who has been struggling in this later part of the season and that's very visible on his advanced numbers, as he has had in September/October a 5.47 ERA, .299 BA, 4.20 FIP and 4.16 xFIP, which represents by far his worst phase of the season. The most worrying fact for him is that the average speed of his fastball clearly regressed and this was the main reason why he is struggling now. According to fangraphs, he averaged 90.9 mph in April, 91.1 in May, 91.4 in June, 91.2 in July, 91.6 in August, but just 90.1 mph in September/October! Not surprisingly, Bumgarner struggled in the Game 2 of San Francisco's series against Cincinnati, in an outing where he last third 4.1 innings while allowing four runs and seven hits! The Reds weren't a good matchup for him, as they are #6 in the league against LH pitchers with .770 OPS, but St Louis is even better against LH pitchers with .789 OPS (#3)! In fact, Bumgarner has already faced the Cardinals twice this season and even though he was at the time on his best moment of the season, he didn't look good by allowing four and three earned runs! Therefore, I expect a good offensive game for the Cardinals in here.

St Louis will start Lynn on this contest, who will be on a very tough spot. On the series against Washington, Lynn was used via bullpen: 0.1IP in the Game 1 of the series; 3.0IP in the Game 2 of the series; played in the 9th inning in the Game 4 of the series. Now with no starting pitching routine on this postseason, he will start on the first game of this series. Lynn has been amazing against RH batters by completely dominated them with 1.99 FIP and 2.36 xFIP, but at the same time, his numbers against LH batters are the opposite with 5.30 FIP and 5.09 xFIP! San Francisco used 5 batters that hit from the left side on their last game against Cincinnati (Pagan, Sandoval, Belt, Blanco and Crawford) and therefore, they will be a very tough matchup for Lynn. In fact, Lynn has already been pounded against the Giants earlier on the road in St Louis, where he allowed four earned runs in six innings.

We are in presence of two offenses that will be a bad matchup for both starting pitchers, therefore this line of 7 runs would only be correct if we were in presence of two struggling offenses with a bad matchup against the starting pitchers, something that is very far from the reality. Therefore, I'll be taking the Over in here. Double Dime Play!

NOTE: Only Pinnacle has the line currently at 6,5. 5Dimes will open it later today.

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 903/904 Over 6,5 (w/ L. Lynn & M. Bumgarner) @ -125 / 1.80 on Pinnacle