Tuesday, October 23, 2012

NFL Week 7 Premium Play 10/22: Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears

Week 7 - 437 Detroit Lions @ 438 Chicago Bears

Projected Line: Chicago by 10 points

I believe the Bears have an excellent spot and an excellent matchup to make a statement on tonight's Monday Night Football. They are coming from a bye week and prior to that, they were running on a three-game winning streak, where they looked very dominant in all three games. Their defense is playing extremely well, especially in terms of intercepting the opposing quarterback, while their very well-balanced offense continues to be very solid football as well. I believe this will happen once again tonight against a Lions that I don't trust one bit to remain competitive the whole game against a Superbowl contender like Chicago.

Jay Cutler may not be an elite quarterback, but he is capable of doing his job on a quite positive way. Sure, he's had his share of turnovers this season, however against a team that has just intercepted their opposing quarterback just twice on their first five games of the season, I don't expect Cutler to have a lot of problems in having a solid game today. Detroit's pass defense is quite mediocre and I don't believe their also poor pass rush will be able to put a lot of pressure on Cutler tonight, even though the Bears' offensive line has indeed had their share of problems previously on this season. Therefore, I expect Jay Cutler to be able to have a decent game tonight, while making his usual combinations mainly to the team's number one receiver Brandon Marshall. Meanwhile, Matt Forte should be also able to have a solid performance tonight, even though Detroit's run defense is indeed surprising me by being #9 in the league on rushing yards allowed per carry this season. Therefore, I expect Chicago to have another solid offensive game tonight, as even though I don't expect them to achieve a huge yardage on this contest, I don't expect them to turn the ball over a lot neither.

But what makes me believe that Chicago will dominate tonight's game is the fact that I expect the Bears' defense to show up big time once again against the Lions offense. We all know that Detroit's overall level directly depends from how their passing game performs and I don't believe they'll have a good game while facing a top defense in a rainy day. Matthew Stafford has been decent this season, but very far from last season's level and he will be facing a team that doesn't forgive any kind of bad pass from their opposing quarterback, as the 13 interceptions the Bears have achieved in their first five games demonstrate. I believe not only the Bears will be quite good on coverage, as they will also be able to put a lot of pressure on Stafford, as Chicago has a good pass rush that Detroit's average offensive line won't be able to handle throughout the whole game. With Stafford struggling tonight, the running game will also struggle in doing anything remarkable against a Bears' run defense that is also one of the best in the league by being #5 in the league in terms of rushing yards allowed per carry. Therefore, I expect a very tough night for Stafford on this contest, very similar to the one he had on his last trip to Chicago last season.

I believe the Bears have a clear matchup and spot edge for tonight, with their defense dominating the Lions' offense, while the Bears offense should also to be able to produce some yardage on their own via their passing and their running game. Therefore, I expect a double digits win for Chicago tonight and so, I'll be taking the Bears in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 438 Chicago Bears (-6,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

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