MLB - 919 San Francisco Giants @ 920 St Louis Cardinals
(Starting Pitchers: B. Zito vs L. Lynn)
***DOUBLE DIME PLAY - SPLIT THE WAGER***
I expect the Cardinals to take advantage of the momentum they have right now to end the series tonight and start preparing for the world series. They will start Lynn tonight, who started in the Game 1 of this series, in a game where he struggled. That wasn't a surprise for me as I took the Over on a Double Dime Play in that game, as Lynn had just 2 days off rest for that game and he was also coming from the bullpen. The combination of these two factors resulted in a disaster. He will have a much better spot this time, with 4 days of rest. As I've mentioned before, Lynn has been amazing against RH batters by completely dominated them with 1.99 FIP and 2.36 xFIP, but at the same time, his numbers against LH batters are the opposite with 5.30 FIP and 5.09 xFIP! San Francisco generally uses 5 batters on their lineup that hit from the left side and the truth is that the 4 earned runs allowed by Lynn in the Game 1 of this series were all via LH hitters! Therefore, I don't believe he will dominate tonight, however he has a better spot tonight than he had on Game 1 and so, he won't be as poor tonight as he was in that game. Besides that, the Cardinals have great middle relievers to save the team from a disaster.
The Giants will start Zito and he has just had one postseason start and it was a disaster, with 6.75 ERA, 9.47 FIP and 6.80 xFIP! He is a flyball pitcher and at Cincinnati, he simply got crushed. He has no strikeout skills, he is too fragile and he is terrible against RH batters by allowing .276 BA, 5.08 FIP and 5.19 xFIP! Therefore, the Cardinals are a terrible matchup for him. Curiously, he had a start previously on this season in St Louis and he looked good by allowing eight hits and two runs in 6.2 innings, while having a 4/0 K/BB ratio. However, his 2.70 ERA, 5.79 FIP and 3.44 xFIP in that outing shows that he was more lucky than good in that start. With the whole Cardinals' lineup is good form right now, I don't believe he will stand a chance tonight, especially when his best pitch is the slider (also a +30% volume) and the Cardinals are being a top 3 team in the league in hitting those in September/October.
I believe the Cardinals will absolutely pound Zito tonight, in a game where Lynn should also have some problems. Therefore, I expect St Louis to win this game on a high scoring contest, so I'll be taking both the Cardinals on a Double Dime Play and the Over in a Single Dime Play!
Pick: 2 units on 920 St Louis Cardinals ML (w/ L. Lynn) @ -158 / 1.63 on 5Dimes
Pick: 2 units on 920 St Louis Cardinals RL -1 (w/ L. Lynn) @ -115 / 1.87 on 5Dimes
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 919/920 Over 7.5 (w/ B. Zito & L. Lynn) @ -120 / 1.83 on 5Dimes
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