NBA - 503 Boston Celtics @ 504 Miami Heat
Projected Line: 195 points
***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***
Three seasons ago when the Miami's big three was formed, they had to face Boston in their first game of the season as well and the closing totals line of that game was 189 points. Miami ended that game with 36.5% FG while showing a lot of offensive problems, while Boston imposed their physical edge down low with Kevin Garnett, Shaquille O'Neal and Jermaine O'Neal. But in three years a lot of things changed and so, the current totals line of 185.5 points makes absolutely zero sense for this contest.
We are now in front of two teams that will play small ball throughout the new season, on a completely new era for them. Chris Bosh will be Miami's starting center and so, the Heat won't have in their starting lineup a player who is worthless on offense like they had in Joel Anthony. Meanwhile, Boston will use a similar formula with Kevin Garnett being the team's starting center.
It's likely that the linemakers are giving too much credit to what happened in last year's playoffs between these two teams. However, I remember that Chris Bosh played only in the last three games of the series and just over 25 minutes in the last two games. On the other hand, Boston was completely banged up and they had very few quality options on their bench. Those games were half court games and that won't happen this season, especially on this game.
Just like it happened last season, Miami will start the season by imposing a very fast pace on their games, in order to take advantage of their superior athletic ability. Take a look at the pace of the four games between these two teams in last year's regular season:
12/27 - 99.97
04/01 - 88.40
04/10 - 88.26
The first game of the series had a super fast pace and with their improved offense, a good ball movement and a tremendous inside out game led by Lebron James, Miami will definitely try to outscore Boston with their close to unstoppable offensive game. So, the question in here is to know if Boston will have any kind of problem in playing small ball with Miami. Looking at what Doc Rivers said this Monday, it seems the Celtics are ready for this kind of game:
"If you go small against us, you may be playing into our hands." -#Celtics Doc Rivers before the C's practice this morning.
Effectively, Boston now has the players to be able to play small ball. In fact, I believe they are so ready for this season that I believe they are the #2 team in the East, right behind Miami. I've watched almost all preseason games of the Celtics and the combo between Rajon Rondo and Courtney Lee works really well offensively, especially in transition. Also note that Boston was known for simply not running, while during this preseason, they scored 16, 18, 12, 14, 17, 16, 22 and 13 fast break points! Also unlike in the previous season, Boston will have some firepower coming off the bench, with a good offensive player in Jason Terry and a fully recovered Jeff Green, who can play multiple positions coming off the bench. Rookie Jared Sullinger has also been looking good offensively down low and he is a NBA ready player on offense, with a lot of work to do on the defensive end. No matter who Doc Rivers decides to start at the PF position (Brandon Bass or Jared Sullinger), the Celtics will have a player with a good inside game coming off the bench. The Celtics will have a much better continuity between the starting lineup and the second unit, something they were clearly missing last season.
I expect this game to be played on a fast pace, not only because both teams will want to explore the matchups, but especially because that's the new identity of both teams. Miami will definitely have one of the best offenses in the league, while I expect a big improvement from Boston on this area in comparison with last season. I was expecting the totals line to be at the 190's, so the current line of 185.5 points is just too low and therefore, I'll be taking the Over in here on a Double Dime Play!
Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 503/504 Over 185.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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