Projected Line: 180 points
***TOP PLAY***
This was the best game of this series and perhaps one of the best NBA Finals games of all time! For the first time in three games, both teams used the same lineups from the previous game, so there was no surprise factor this time, something that was decisive when Miami started Mike Miller on Game 4 and when San Antonio started Manu Ginobili on Game 5. However, unlike what happened on the previous two games, Game 6 wasn't a fast paced game, as the pace was actually more similar to the first two games of the series. Nevertheless, with just six minutes played, the score was already 18-16!
San Antonio had shot 60% FG on Game 5, so Miami's main focus for this game was on defense. Chris Bosh mentioned that Danny Green wouldn't be as wide open as previously on the series and that really happened, as Green struggled to find good spots and ended the game with just 1-7 FG! Lebron James's defensive assignment was to defend Tony Parker, one of the main reasons why Parker ended with an awful 6-23 FG, but that made Lebron to be far from the basket. This change of approach and defensive positioning allowed Tim Duncan to have more space down low and he just crushed the Heat during the first half with 25 points - half of the Spurs' total points! The problem is that Duncan is 37 years old and this is why he had his best regular season in years while playing just 30 minutes per game. So, this is why he couldn't sustain all the workload that he had during the first half and faded away greatly on the second half: he didn't score a single point during the fourth quarter and overtime! Duncan and Parker were so exhausted that Popovich was forced to bench them both at the start of the fourth quarter.
With Lebron being a defensive monster against Parker, the Spurs needed a second playmaker that would be Ginobili, but he struggled heavily with eight turnovers. The trade off of getting good looks on the outside versus getting more space down low worked for the Spurs on this contest, as despite having just 5-18 3pts (series low), the Spurs scored 60 points in the paint (series high)! On Miami's side, Lebron James had a monster fourth quarter by carrying the team on his own, but he ran out of gas at the end of game, where he ended up having some help from San Antonio's poor tactical choices and Ray Allen. Once again, the Heat's offensive flow was great with Dwyane Wade on the bench, so no wonder that Wade ended the game with a huge negative team -15 points when he was on the floor. On a lineup with Lebron James and four shooters, it's much more difficult to stop the Heat because they can't overhelp the strongside to stop James's drives to the basket or Lebron will find the open guy on the weakside.
The pace factor on this series have been the following:
G1 84.19
G2 82.71
G3 85.32
G4 92.22
G5 93.39
G6 84.14
The pace of Game 6 was way slower than on the two previous games even though both teams used small lineups. In my opinion, this was due to the fact that both teams committed to not allowing transition points to their opponents and especially because both teams are incredibly tired right now. Note that the best offensive moment of the game was right on the first six minutes of the game when they scored a combined of 34 points! Unlike the previous games, we reached a moment where both teams just can't surprise the opponent and so, both teams know what to expect from their opponent, something that only creates problems to the offensive execution of both teams. Tony Parker is hobbled and being defended by Lebron James. Tim Duncan simply can't take over the game for 40 minutes, as he faded badly in the second half of the game, while Manu Ginobili is the key on this matchup, but he is being inconsistent as well. With the extra effort from Game 6, I believe San Antonio will have offensive problems on this game.
However, Miami also saw Lebron James playing 50 minutes on Game 6 and it's almost impossible for him to have a monster efficient offensive game tonight, as he'll have to spend a ton of energy while defending Tony Parker. Dwyane Wade is also banged up and he missed the start of the third quarter on Game 6 because of a swelling on his repaired left knee. So, Miami isn't on a good spot for tonight's game. If we combine that to the fact that the pace of tonight's game will be slow and similar to Game 6's pace, the tiredness of both teams and the fact that they won't have new tricks on the bag, we will have a slow paced contest in here and the offensive struggles of both teams will turn this game into a low scoring affair. Therefore, I'll be taking the Under in here on a Triple Dime Play: my NBA Finals Game of the Year!
Pick: 5 units (Triple Dime Play) on 713/714 Under 190 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
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