MLB - 953 New York Mets @ 954 Philadelphia Phillies
(Starting Pitchers: J. Hefner vs C. Hamels)
The Phillies are coming Cole Hamels, who has been one of the unluckiest pitchers in the league this season. He has a 2-10 record on decisions, but he isn't pitching that terribly. He is coming from an outing at Colorado, where he allowed just three runs on seven innings, but as usual this season, he had no run support and lost another decision. If we look at his monthly FIP numbers, they are actually quite good: 4.33 in April; 3.99 in May; 2.65 in June! Now against a Mets' lineup that is #28 in the league in hitting versus LH pitchers, I expect Hamels to have a good outing in here, just like the one he had earlier on the season against the NY team, where he allowed just one run in six innings.
The Mets will be starting Jeremy Hefner, who has allowed just one run on each of his last three outings, including a home game against the Cardinals. Just like Hamels, Hefner has been improving month after month this season. He started with a horrible 6.16 FIP in April, but then he recovered with a 3.94 FIP in May and he is now posting a 3.44 FIP in June! He faced the Phillies back in April and no wonder he got crushed with five runs allowed in three innings. However, Hefner's main problem this season has been facing LH batters (6.42 FIP and 5.17 xFIP) and the Phillies will have six players hitting on the left side on their lineup tonight, including a returning Chase Utley.
Considering how Hamels is now clearly pitching at a good level and Hefner's struggles with left handed batters, I expect Philadelphia to pick up a comfortable win tonight.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 954 Philadelphia Phillies RL -1 (w/ C. Hamels) @ -137 / 1.73 on 5Dimes
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