(Starting Pitchers: W. Miley vs J. Marquis)
Both offenses were terrible last night, but it's important to note that the Dbacks had a poor matchup against the in-form Eric Stults, while Trevor Cahill had a season high 10 strikeouts, on a really nice outing for him as well. But I expect both lineups to have better matchups tonight, especially as both starting pitchers are really struggling right now. Arizona will start Wade Miley, who has been terrible lately, with 3, 3, 7 and 7 runs allowed on his last four starts. He has been showcasing command problems, while he is also being very hittable, with 9, 11, 7 and 7 hits allowed in those four games. San Diego seems to be a terrible matchup for Miley as usual, as the Padres's current roster is hitting .304 BA and .864 OPS against him on 112 At Bats, while scoring 7 and 4 runs on the last two games against him.
On the other side, Arizona's lineup has also a good opportunity to bounce back after yesterday's disaster. Jason Marquis's command is terrible (4/5, 6/2, 6/4, 2/4, 3/4 and 3/4 K/BB ratios on his last six starts), while he has allowed a homerun on each of his last four starts! He is being lucky on June due to a really low BABIP (.167!) or he would have been getting pounded game after game right now. Arizona has been hitting well against RH pitchers and they have pounded Marquis with four and three runs on the last two games where they faced him, while the Dbacks' roster is hitting .344 BA and 1.117 OPS on 96 AB's against him! If we combine the problems that both pitchers will have with the low totals line of 7.5 runs, it is clear to me that we have good value on the Over and so, I'll be taking it in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 963/964 Over 7,5 (w/ W. Miley & J. Marquis) @ +105 / 2.05 on Bookmaker
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