Projected Line: 191 points | Miami by 4 points
For the Game 4 of the Finals, Coach Spoelstra changed Miami's starting lineup by benching Udonis Haslem and starting Mike Miller. Chris Anderson didn't play a single minute on Game 4, so the Heat played the whole game with small ball lineups. Miami's adjustments were done in consequence to what San Antonio had done on Game 3, where the Spurs were giving a lot of space to Lebron James and Dwyane Wade to shoot from the outside. On Game 4, Miami's offense was much more aggressive than on the previous games. They pushed the ball, they scored points in transition and not even a poor start of the game (5-15 run) stopped them. Then, Dwyane Wade woke up and played at a great level.
On the other hand, San Antonio can only produce offensively if Tony Parker plays well. He made some amazing shots and he would penetrate into the basket and then pass the ball to an open shooter on the outside. But Parker was too tired on the second half, with no explosion, so he was only able to make some assists. The Spurs had a lot of problems to outplay the Heat's undersized lineups, who was very quick in double teaming and closing the passing lanes. Tiago Splitter was well defended down low and he lacks the skills to make the right decisions under pressure. Tim Duncan couldn't dominate down low and of course, San Antonio couldn't handle Miami's offensive flow. This change in Miami's style caused the Game 4 to be the fastest paced game of the Finals with a 92.22 pace, after pace factors of 84.19, 82.71 and 85.32 on Games 1, 2 and 3.
I believe that after San Antonio surprising Miami on Game 3 and the opposite happening on Game 4, I believe won't be able to surprise the opponent tonight. Now with Tony Parker hobbled, Manu Ginobili struggling and Tim Duncan starting to show his real age, San Antonio can't handle Miami anymore. San Antonio's defensive strategy of protecting the rim, packing the paint and give space to Lebron James and Dwyane Wade ended with Game 4 in my opinion. Both Lebron and Wade are now in attack mode and I believe this will continue tonight. What the Spurs can do tonight is give double coverage to both players, but this will mean sacrifice the weakside defense and both Lebron and Wade are excellent passers and they will easily find the right teammates. Note that the Heat shot just 4-12 3pts on Game 4, after shooting 8-25, 10-19 and 8-18 3pts on the first three games of the series! They still won Game 4 easily because both Lebron and Wade attempted a combined of 50 shots! Mike Miller would supposedly spread the floor, but he attempt just one shot in 21 minutes! But if San Antonio tries to change its defensive approach tonight, we can expect Miami's role players to have a big game on their outside shooting, just like it happened on last year's finals against the Thunder! Either way, the Spurs' defense will struggle.
On the other hand, San Antonio's offense should in theory try what Indiana did to Miami on the Conference Final: pound down low, crush the offensive glass and have a bunch of free throws, but they don't have Indiana's powerful big men, as Tiago Splitter isn't David West and Tim Duncan lacks Roy Hibbert's raw power. So, the solution for the Spurs is to play small ball and this is what Coach Popovich has done for most of the time on the Finals, but San Antonio's small ball lacks the dynamic that Miami's small lineups have. While Parker was physically at 100%, San Antonio was able to create good looks, but nothing in comparison to Miami's offense given the aggressive way that the Heat's defense can be aggressive and force turnovers. The adjustments that Popovich might attempt tonight won't create enough damage to make the Heat struggle. Tonight's game is likely to be a duel between two teams playing small ball and Miami is simply the better team in playing like that. Therefore, I'll be taking the Heat in here. Also with both teams using small lineups for most of the game, I expect the game to be relatively as fast as Game 4, with both teams consequently producing decent offense once again. So, I'll be taking the Over in here as well.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 708/709 Over 188 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 709 Miami Heat (-1) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
No comments:
Post a Comment