Projected Line: 184 points
On Game 5, Indiana's offense was limited to just 79 points and a 93.9 offensive rating, something that contrasted with the 116.4 average offensive rate on the first four games of this series. The Pacers' offense had been quite "consistent" due to their domination on boards and free throws, but on Game 5, Miami did a good job in limiting this edge with Indiana having just a 50.3% rebound rate, 6 offensive rebounds and 15 FT attempts, while at the same time Indiana's backcourt was limited by foul trouble, something that added together resulted in just 79 points scored by the Pacers. I expected a bounce back from Indiana on Game 6 and this was why I took them on this game. They were more aggressive and therefore, they had an edge again on rebounds and free throws. That was evident since the start of Game 6, as everytime they were able to make a defensive stop, they pushed up the tempo searching for transition points and they succeeded in that! Indiana had just a 6.80%, 7.30% and 7.50% volume on transitions on Games 3, 4 and 5, while averaging 7.3 fast break points on this series, including a series low of just 4 fast break points on Game 5.
Indiana's backcourt has been struggling on half court, so why not asking them to push the pace as they have good athletes in George Hill and Lance Stephenson? The truth is that Indiana had almost 14% volume on transition plays, with a nice 7-10 FG and 1.36 PPP on transitions and a series high of 14 fast break points! If we add to that their domination on the glass once again, with a 57.9% rebound rate with 15 offensive boards, while Roy Hibbert had a great performance with 11-20 FG. These numbers were especially important, as David West was sick and his contribute on offense on the first half with 0-7 FG!
On the other hand, Miami's offense was just ugly to watch, with an offensive rating of just 94! This was their worst offensive game of the postseason and their second worst offensive rating in the season. The only time they did even worse was at Milwaukee, where they had a 93.6 offensive rating on their worst spot of the season, as they were playing their fourth game in five nights! However, it's curious to note that Miami was super sharp on their outside shooting with 10-18 (55.6%) 3pts, something that means that they shot just 16-54 (29.5%) on 2pts shots! Just like Indiana, Miami entered Game 6 with the mindset to score easy transition points especially via creating turnovers. Miami had a 20% volume on transitions with a great 9-14 FG, 1.37 PPP and 15 fast break points scored. The problem was that the Heat won Game 5 via great outside shots, especially with Lebron James. They tried a similar approach on Game 6, but they scored just 22 points at the paint, as Lebron didn't dominate down low, Chris Bosh was banged up, Dwyane Wade missing some easy layups and with Chris Anderson suspended, Joel Anthony couldn't do anything on offense even at the rim.
Game 6 had 178 points scored, but with a pace clearly superior to the pace factor on the two previous games of the series. The problem was really the poor offensive execution from Miami. For tonight's game, we have several factors that make me believe that both teams will play better offense tonight than they did on Game 6. I liked the aggressive way how both teams tried to create transition chances on last Saturday's game. If we exclude the first game of the series, this was the only game where both teams scored double digits fast break points. It isn't hard to imagine the same scenario happening tonight, as Indiana is turnover prone and Miami's defense will be super aggressive, while Lance Stephenson and George Hill will surely have the same mindset that they had on the previous game. Indiana's offense will continue having the usual edge down low that Roy Hibbert creates via post up plays, free throws and offensive rebounds! Miami won't have anybody to stop him, as Hibbert is playing extremely well right now. Indiana scored 52 points on the second half of Game 6, while they scored just 39 points on the first half. The difference for that was simple: David West shot 0-7 FG on the first half, while he shot 5-7 FG on the second half! He was sick with a 100 degrees fever, but with him being healthier tonight, Indiana will have every condition to have another decent offensive outcome.
So, the big difference will be Miami's approach towards tonight's game. First of all, Chris Anderson is back and he has been the key competent for Miami to take advantage of Indiana's weakside defense to finalize plays at the rim. The trade off between Joel Anthony and Chris Anderson is quite evident: Anderson gives the team more offense, but also a worse defense. On the other hand, I expect a better effort from Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh tonight. Wade is banged up, but I don't believe he will miss a lot of easy layups once again tonight. With Lebron working more on the down low tonight, this will give more space for Wade to make some cuts into the basket as well. On the other hand, Bosh promised to come ultra aggressive tonight:
“I changed my game (for) Games 1-6 and it hasn’t really worked,” Bosh said, citing a lack of aggression. “Tonight, I’m going to do what I do, let it all hang out.”
After basing their game via perimeter on Games 5 and 6, I have no doubt that Lebron James is going to dominate down low with post up plays creating even more good looks to Miami's outside game, who has shot 17-36 (47%) 3pts on the last two games of the series. Indiana will come out to this game with the visual memory from what Miami did on the last two games and this change in Miami's approach for tonight, it will be tough for Indiana to adjust to this during the game. Miami had just 12 and 19 FT attempts on the last two games of the series, but I expect them to be much more aggressive and get more FT attempts, especially with referee Scott Foster on the court. We have every condition for this game to go Over the total posted tonight and so, I'll be taking the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 527/528 Over 180 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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