Projected Line: 191 points | San Antonio 1Q by 4 points
Even though Game 2 ended with a blowout win for Miami, the truth is that with just three minutes to go to end the third quarter, San Antonio was up by 62-61! What happened next was an insane domination from the Heat in both ends of the floor that resulted on a 33-5 run! San Antonio came with the same gameplan they used on Game 1 as expected. They wanted to play 5x5 every single time, on a pure half court game and so, they wanted to avoid turnovers and be very patient in looking for the best possible spots to shoot the ball. They were unable to do that and committed 17 turnovers, but the truth is that the pace of this game was just 82.71, so the game was even slower than Game 1! In fact, only the Spurs' first game against Memphis had a lower pace.
The Spurs' lack of aggressiveness in both ends of the floor has been evident. They don't try to run in transition and this is why they scored just 4 fast break points on Game 2 and 3 fast break points on Game 1. Their playoffs average was 13.5 fast break points per game! San Antonio isn't attacking early on the shotclock especially on pick and rolls, while letting Miami's defensive traps to be efficient, something that made San Antonio have just 16 assists, the first time in the whole season that the Spurs had back to back games with less than 20 assists on each game. Of course, everything can be also resumed to Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili and Kawhi Leonard shooting a combined of 14-45 (31%) FG!
The Spurs aren't being aggressive on defense, unlike Miami. This is why the Heat had just six turnovers on Game 2. Their plan to pack the paint to protect Lebron James and Dwyane Wade down low is being defeated by Miami's good passes to the wide open shooters who made 10-19 3pts on Game 2! The conjugation of Miami's speed on offense with San Antonio's turnovers allowed the Heat to have their huge run on the second half and therefore, have an easy win on this contest.
For tonight's game, I believe San Antonio will change their approach. As small as the changes might be, this will have an impact on tonight's game. San Antonio has been a fast paced team for the whole season, who takes advantage of any chance to score in transition, while taking advantage of Tony Parker's foot speed. They abdicated of using that on the first two games of this series, but they won Game 1 due to Miami's lack of energy down the stretch. Things were different on Game 2, with the Spurs being unable to have a good offensive flow with this approach. I believe San Antonio now at home will go back to their usual style, with a higher tempo, more aggressive offense, without being super worried in not committing turnovers. Not only the Spurs had 16 assists on the first two games of the finals, as they scored just 4 and 3 fast break points, while attempting just 18 and 14 free throws! This was enough for San Antonio's defense to limit Miami's offense, but they won't be able to continue being successful with this approach, as Lebron James didn't have a great performance for most of the Game 2, but then he was able to find the right teammates to produce a big second half run. Miami is capable of playing small against San Antonio, as Udonis Haslem played just 16 minutes on Game 2 and Miami was outscored during that period by 3 points!
A lot has been said about San Antonio needing to defend better Miami's shooters like Mike Miller, Mario Chalmers and Ray Allen, but coach Popovich with that will need to sacrifice their paint defense, with Lebron crushing them on that scenario. Either way, San Antonio won't be limiting Miami to just 88 points per game on this series. The difference is that with just one day off, San Antonio will surprise Miami with a faster tempo. Coach Popovich gave up on Game 2 relatively early and so, their players are rested for tonight. I expect a faster game tonight, with both teams having decent offensive performances, so I'll take the Over in here. As I expect the Spurs to enter the game really well tonight, surprising the Heat with their new style, I'll be taking the Spurs on the first quarter as well. During the first quarter, Miami tends to play with a bigger lineup with Udonis Haslem and that makes the Heat struggles, as San Antonio's big lineup is certainly much better than Miami's big lineup.
NOTE: Totals Line also available at Pinnacle and The Greek
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 705/706 Over 187,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Justbet
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 706 San Antonio Spurs (-0,5) FIRST QUARTER @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
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