MLB - 921 Detroit Tigers @ 922 Minnesota Twins
(Starting Pitchers: R. Porcello vs S. Diamond)
We have in here a tremendous SP mismatch favoring Detroit in my opinion. Rick Porcello may have a season ERA of 4.86, but he has been much better lately, while dominating some really powerful offenses! Look at his monthly evolution this season (FIP + xFIP):
March/April: 5.03 FIP; 4.47 xFIP
May: 3.25 FIP; 2.33 xFIP
June: 2.56 FIP; 2.19 xFIP
We can add to this his dominant performances against Cleveland (twice), Texas and Baltimore! His only poor start was in fact against Minnesota, where he allowed five runs in just five innings, so Porcello has a revenge spot tonight.
On the other side, Simon Diamond will start for the Twins and he's really struggling right now. He is coming from facing the worst hitting team in the league versus LH pitchers and Diamond still pitched for just five innings, as he allowed 10 hits and 6 runs against the Nationals! He is too hittable with .326 BA allowed and he also has a poor command, therefore he can be easily pounded by good hitting teams like Detroit, a team that is #2 in the league in hitting versus LH pitchers this season! Diamond has already faced the Tigers twice this season and he of course struggled with 13 hits allowed on two starts. Detroit looks ready to bounce back tonight after a losing series against the Royals and so, I'll be taking them in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 921 Detroit Tigers ML (w/ R. Porcello) @ -138 / 1.72 on Betonline
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