It took some time, but we have finally the finals between the two best teams of each conference. Miami had a tough task against Indiana, in a bad matchup for them with Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh heavily struggling, while the Spurs had almost 10 days off between their last game against Memphis and Game 1 of the finals. The discussion of San Antonio having a rest edge or being rusty is kinda pointless in my opinion, if we exclude the fact that San Antonio had indeed more time to prepare the matchup than Miami. The last time we had a similar spot on the finals was in 2003. The Nets swept Detroit on the Eastern Conference Final and then had 10 days off, while San Antonio needed six games to defeated Dallas. The truth is that on the Game 1 of the finals, the Nets still lost at San Antonio by 89-101. Normally, the regular season games between the two teams use to be a good barometer to understand the matchups, but on this case we can't take a single conclusion, as both teams rest their best players when they played on the road.
There's a common fact on these two teams' path to the final. On the conference finals, both teams faced similar teams in Memphis and Indiana. They both base their offense through the post, as Indiana was #1 on post up volume, while Memphis was #3 during the regular season. They both struggled to knock down shots from the perimeter and their bench lacks good offensive options. But San Antonio has nothing to do with Indiana, while Miami has nothing to do with Memphis, something that turns this matchup into a super interesting one!
When the Spurs have the ball:
Tony Parker has been at an incredible level on the postseason. Miami's defense had a great matchup against Indiana, where they used their amazing ball pressure defense especially on pick and rolls. Indiana was #24 on pick and roll ball handler offense with just 0.74 PPP, so their tendency to commit turnovers was well visible throughout the series, especially on Game 7, where the Pacers' inability to generate offense via pick and roll ball handler plays was quite evident. In fact, they had 0.00, 0.38 and 0.18 PPP on this kind of plays on the last three games of the series! Things will be completely different with San Antonio, as both Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili are back to a good level, so Miami will need to be careful on blitzing the ball handler, as the Spurs will punish them. With Tiago Splitter emerging as a very good player, Popovich would love for Duncan and Splitter to dominate the Heat on the down low, as much as Hibbert and West did it, but that is unlikely to happen. Indiana's offensive approach is to crash the boards in order to get second chance points via rebounding and they were indeed a Top 5 offensive rebound team all season long with an offensive rebound rate higher than 30%, but Popovich won't try to crash the boards, as only the Celtics were a worse offensive rebounding team than the Spurs this season. Still, Splitter's improvement and Duncan's excellent season will allow the Spurs to be a considerable threat down low if they are left open. Unlike Indiana, San Antonio is a great outside shooting team and their decision making on offense is generally excellent, something that will put Miami's defense in trouble. Also unlike the Pacers, the Spurs have a good bench and Popovich will have in mind several lineups to use on this series, including putting Kawhi Leonard at the PF position. Those few minutes where Indiana was using Augustin, Young and Mahinmi, something that the Heat took advantage to crush them won't happen on this series, as San Antonio has a nice bench.
When the Heat have the ball:
On the three series that San Antonio had until now, two of them were against teams that simply had no offensive power on the perimeter: the shorthanded Lakers and the Grizzlies. So, it wasn't a surprise to see the Lakers shooting 20-74 (27%) 3pts and Memphis 22-63 (34.9%) 3pts. Only the Warriors were a perimeter shooting threat to the Spurs (no wonder they lost two games on that series), but Golden State had no inside presence capable of putting the Spurs in danger on this area as well. The Warriors averaged just 38 points in the paint per game, on a series that had a double overtime game and another game that went to overtime. Kawhi Leonard will be Lebron James's defender. Even though Leonard is an uprising star with good defensive skills, he has problems in keeping himself focused throughout the game, so it's unfair to ask him to limit Lebron, as that's not possible. Even the Pacers (the best defense in the league) couldn't stop Lebron from being efficient on everything they do. Not only Lebron dominated down low, as he also dominated Game 5 from the outside! The 36% FG that Lebron shot on the 2007 finals against the Spurs won't happen again for sure! But what Miami needs is an healthy Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh! The latter was horrible on the previous series against Indiana, especially after getting injured on his ankle late in the series. He had to work so hard on defense that he had no energy to be efficient on offense. On this series, Bosh has conditions to make some damage against Duncan due to an edge on foot speed and good long range shooting. However, I wouldn't be surprised to see Splitter defending Bosh instead, especially while Haslem is on court as well. Miami would like to have their long range shooting working against the Spurs because so far they have been struggling on this area. Shane Battier and Mario Chalmers are shooting below 30% in the playoffs from beyond the arc. Mike Miller is shooting 27.8% 3pts. Even Ray Allen is just shooting 36.5% 3pts! However, it's important to note that Indiana is #1 on the league on spot up shooting this season, while Chicago is #2, so no wonder that the Heat struggled on their long range shooting on these series. Meanwhile, San Antonio's defense is #14, so Miami has a better matchup on this area against them, especially with Lebron James finding his open teammates so well.
Prediction: This will be indeed the best series of the postseason, as both teams have a good offense and a good defense. We can say that apparently the Spurs have a physical edge and a coaching edge, but Lebron James on the other hand might win this finals almost on his own, especially if Wade and Bosh play a bit better. It would be a huge surprise for me if this series doesn't have at least six games. My pick is the Heat to win in 7 games.
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