Projected Line: 195 points | Miami by 3 points
If the Spurs were more concerned with avoiding turnovers at the start of this series in order to turn the Finals into a half court battle, this completely stopped happened on Game 5, where San Antonio became a run and gun team, where they committed a series high of 19 turnovers, but compensated that with an offensive execution. In some "wired" TV segments, Coach Popovich kept saying "don't stop the pace" and "pace, pace, pace". So, it's not a surprise that we had the following sequence of pace in these Finals: 84.19; 82.71; 85.32; 92.22; 93.39!
In order to respond to Miami's small ball, the Spurs responded with a small ball lineup as well, with Manu Ginobili starting for the first time this season! These finals are being amazing when it comes to coach, with both Coach Spoelstra and Coach Popovich to adjust very well after a loss without having to change their structure. Remember last season when Coach Scott Brooks refused to change the Thunder's lineup when it was visible that Oklahoma City couldn't play big against Miami's small lineup?
Game 5 had a bunch of runs made by both teams, but the two important runs were performed by San Antonio: 15-2 at the end of the 1st quarter, transforming a 17-17 tie into a 32-19 score; and a 19-1 run between the 3rd and the 4th quarter, when the score was 75-74 in favor of the Spurs.
San Antonio naturally changed its defensive style, not giving any space to Dwyane Wade and Lebron James, something that gave space to the role players to have good numbers and that indeed happened. Wade and James combined a total of 18 assists, with Miami shooting 11-23 3pts, after a 4-12 3pts performance on Game 4! But the X factor of Game 5 was the fact that both Wade and Lebron couldn't have good individual games, with both of them missing some weird easy shots near the basket.
In order to respond to Miami's small ball, the Spurs responded with a small ball lineup as well, with Manu Ginobili starting for the first time this season! These finals are being amazing when it comes to coach, with both Coach Spoelstra and Coach Popovich to adjust very well after a loss without having to change their structure. Remember last season when Coach Scott Brooks refused to change the Thunder's lineup when it was visible that Oklahoma City couldn't play big against Miami's small lineup?
Game 5 had a bunch of runs made by both teams, but the two important runs were performed by San Antonio: 15-2 at the end of the 1st quarter, transforming a 17-17 tie into a 32-19 score; and a 19-1 run between the 3rd and the 4th quarter, when the score was 75-74 in favor of the Spurs.
San Antonio naturally changed its defensive style, not giving any space to Dwyane Wade and Lebron James, something that gave space to the role players to have good numbers and that indeed happened. Wade and James combined a total of 18 assists, with Miami shooting 11-23 3pts, after a 4-12 3pts performance on Game 4! But the X factor of Game 5 was the fact that both Wade and Lebron couldn't have good individual games, with both of them missing some weird easy shots near the basket.
On the other hand, the Spurs' starting lineup combined to shoot 39-61 (64%) FG! Some of the shots made were contested and incredible ones, but the Spurs also missed some wide open shots as well! In theory, the Spurs by losing the turnover battle (19 vs 15) and getting outrebounded (grabbed just 45% of the total boards) would lose clearly this game, but that did't happen because they shot 66.4 eFG%!
I believe that we will finally have a close game down the stretch on this series, something that hasn't happened since Game 1, as the potential adjustment that Coach Spoelstra will perform today won't have the impact that other adjustments performed by Miami and San Antonio had in previous games of these Finals. I knew that San Antonio by playing small ball on Game 5 would be competitive via offense and this is why I took the Over on that game. However, I also took Miami because I thought that San Antonio's small ball would be far from the level that Miami's small ball possesses, but I was wrong as San Antonio used an almost kamikaze style by wanting to push the pace in every single play. I believe things will be similar tonight, as this is San Antonio's best chance to win the title and so, we can expect the Spurs to be super aggressive tonight. Manu Ginobili was awesome on Game 5 and the Spurs basically play with two PG's at the same time with Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker. On the first half, Manu allowed Parker to "rest" a bit by not having to be so aggressive, while Danny Green keeps making treys non-stop and even Tim Duncan had some glimpses of dominance. I know that Chris Bosh mentioned that Danny Green "won't be open tonight", but the problem is making the right close outs on him. Miami will have to abdicate on double covering Parker and Manu as soon as they attack off the dribble and go to the rim.
On the other side, it has been mentioned that Mike Miller will leave the lineup, while Chris Anderson will return to the rotation. But the key in my opinion will be to know if Udonis Haslem or Shane Battier will be starters tonight. It has been seen that the Heat's big lineup isn't efficient against San Antonio, so I expect Battier to start tonight. Miami couldn't have a great offensive performance on Game 5 due to Dwyane Wade's and Lebron James's misses on the down low, even though they shared the ball with their teammates extremely well. With both teams playing small ball and especially with the efficient that they've showed while doing that, the current totals line is set way too low and so, I'll be taking the Over in here. The story of this series tells us that Miami will bounce back big time tonight, but even though I admit the Heat may win tonight, I expect this contest to be close, therefore I see good value on the Spurs as 6.5 points underdogs tonight.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 711/712 Over 191 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 711 San Antonio Spurs (+6,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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