Projected Line: Indiana by 2 points
Indiana was having an insane offensive ratings on this series via a non-orthodox way, as it wasn't being done via a good offensive flow, but due to a tremendous domination in two key areas: offensive rebounding and free throws. On the first four games of this series, Indiana averaged 35.3 FT attempts and 15.3 offensive boards per game, while grabbing 56.4% of the boards on each game. But I have to give merit to Miami on Game 5, as they limited Indiana on these two key areas, so no wonder that the Pacers scored just 79 points! Indiana had just 15 FT attempts and 6 offensive boards! They still won the boards battle, but marginally as they grabbed 50.3% of the total rebounds! Indiana keeps having a tremendous edge down low with Roy Hibbert and David West, but Miami did a good job in limiting post up plays from the Pacers. On the first four games of the series, Indiana averaged a volume of 17.9% on post up plays, but the volume decreased to 12.9% on Game 5.
Offensively, Miami is currently playing with two banged up players in Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh. It is tough to watch Wade play right now because he seems disinterested at times in the game! After Indiana's defensive disaster on Game 3, the Pacers decided to protect even more the paint, while giving some space on the outside and that happened on Game 5 as well. Miami took advantage of that with mid range/long jumpers with Lebron James dominating the game. During the decisive third quarter, Miami shot 4-5 FG at the rim vs 6-7 FG on mid range jumpers and 3-6 on three-pointers!
For tonight's game, I believe that Indiana will have more conditions to win it than Miami, so the current spread line gives us some nice value on the Pacers! Lebron James dominated Game 5, but I didn't like the way that Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh limped on the court. Besides that, Chris Anderson is suspended for tonight's game and he has been a key factor on this series, as he has been excellent in closing plays at the rim, besides the fact that he is an important piece on the Heat's interior defense. David West and Roy Hibbert will continue dominating on the down low tonight, as they have been doing all series long, giving their team a good number of easy points. The big difference will be on what Indiana's backcourt will be able to do on this game after their disaster on Game 5. Lance Stephenson has been a wild card on this series. But on Game 5, he had two quick fouls and got benched early on, conditioning his natural aggressiveness, his main strength by far.
I also believe George Hill will have a bounce back game tonight. Remember how the Pacers got crushed on Game 5 versus the Knicks, in a game where Hill didn't play due to a concussion? Well, Hill battled with foul trouble on the Game 5 against the Heat and he was forced to sit on the bench for nearly seven minutes during the decisive third quarter, when the Pacers shot 3-14 FG and committed 5 turnovers. D.J. Augustin can't run Indiana's offense and the Heat took advantage of that to crush the Pacers on that span of time. With Hill on the floor, I doubt that Miami would be able to make such a great run, as in fact Miami just outscored Indiana by 2 points on Game 5 while Hill was on court!
I expect Indiana to come more aggressive than ever for tonight's game, in order to recover their free throw and offensive boards edges. With Miami having Wade and Bosh banged up plus Birdman suspended, Lebron James will have to do almost everything on his own like he used to do at Cleveland, but I don't believe this will be enough for the Heat to beat a super fired up Pacers team. Therefore, I'll be taking Indiana tonight.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 524 Indiana Pacers (+3) @ -115 / 1.87 on Bovada
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