Projected Line: 184 points | Miami by 9 points
This game showed well that we are in presence of the two best teams in the league execution-wise. It was a very well played game in both offense and defense. I tracked the good shots that didn't enter during the second half versus the bad shots that went in and I counted 3 "bad shots" going in, including Tony Parker's final play. San Antonio had a lot of time to prepare this game and they had their lesson very well studied, especially on defense, where they were amazing. Coach Popovich wanted to stop Miami's transition game by turning the game into a half court one and so, San Antonio need to avoid turnovers at all cost and they did it with just 4 turnovers the whole game, while they also couldn't crash the offensive glass, with the Spurs running back to defense after every shot attempt.
San Antonio had some sloppy plays during the first half, as coach Popovich mentioned that during a timeout and on the second half, the Spurs didn't commit any error! Miami scored 9 fast break points on the first three quarters of the game and they couldn't score any fast break point on the fourth quarter, so no wonder they had only 16 points on the 4th quarter! I also felt that the Heat were tired down the stretch, where they lack aggressiveness. Supposedly, Lebron James asked to rest a bit and with that, both Wade and Lebron were at the bench in the start of the fourth quarter. Miami wasn't really outscored during that span, but they lost their offensive rhythm! This is why Miami scored just 7 points on the first nine minutes of the fourth quarter!
The Spurs managed to create good looks on this game. They missed some wide open treys, but the Heat's defense did a good job as well in limiting the great ball movement of the Spurs. After averaging 25 assists per game against the Grizzlies' elite defense, San Antonio had just 16 assists against the Heat. After a scoreless first quarter, Tim Duncan managed to get an edge down low for the rest of the game, with 8-14 FG and 20 points on the last three quarters of the game. San Antonio won Game 1 because they were better prepared than Miami, something perfectly normal given the spots of both teams. The Spurs also had a physical edge down the stretch, while they also executed better on the final moments of the game.
The pace of Game 1 (84.20) was well below my prediction of at least 88 and this was caused especially by the Spurs' approach that would be the same for the rest of the series, as they won Game 1 while playing on a really slow pace. San Antonio wants to prevent Miami from having transition chances and so, they are trying to avoid turnovers at any cost. They are giving space to some Heat players who aren't very effective. This includes Bosh's 3pts attempts at the top (he is much more effective on corner treys) and Wade's mid range games. The same can be said about Lebron, with the paint getting protected at all times when James drove to the basket. I believe that San Antonio will continue to limit Miami's offense at a decent rate because Miami's offense doesn't have enough fresh legs to the same stuff that they were doing during the regular season.
However, when Lebron James was still fresh on Game 1, he dominated down low against Leonard, not just in scoring, but also in making the right passes to the open teammates. This will be the key for tonight's game in my opinion. There isn't a way that the Spurs can defend this effectively and so, coach Spoelstra will change a bit his team's rotations to avoid the poor fourth quarter that they had on Game 1. On the other hand, I was impressed at how Miami's defense played. They didn't have a lot of time to prepare for that game, but they allowed the Spurs to have just 16 assists on the 35 FG made, for an assist rate of 45.7%! This isn't normal for such a formidable offensive passing team like they normally are. Note that San Antonio had a 65% assist rate on the series against Memphis!
San Antonio had some good open looks that they missed, but this was also counterbalanced with the lack of turnovers, as I don't believe that they will be able to commit just four turnovers once again tonight. Both teams are excellent on defense without fouling, so I believe we will have a low number of free throws tonight. I believe Miami will be better prepared for tonight's game than they were in Game 1, with the right rotations allowing Lebron and Wade resting a bit more during the game, so they can be much more aggressive down the stretch than they were on Game 1. I expect a comfortable win for Miami tonight on a low scoring game, so I'll be taking both the Heat and the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 703/704 Under 188 @ -110 / 1.91 on BookmakerPick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 704 Miami Heat (-6) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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