Projected Lines: 183 points | Miami by 2 points
One of the main stories for Game 3 was how the Spurs would be able to be competitive, after being able to outscore Miami in just one quarter on the first two games of the finals. Well, they crushed that trend by outscoring the Heat in all four quarters of Game 3! San Antonio's defensive gameplan was the same as before: dare Lebron and Wade to beat them from the outside, while clogging the lane to prevent them from getting easy points. This is forcing Haslem to play less and less time on this series. He played 17 minutes on Game 1, 16 minutes on Game and now 10 minutes on Game 3, as Miami is only able to get some offensive flow by playing small ball. Lebron James didn't have a good game at all. He hesitated too much on shooting at the basket, even when he was wide open on several possessions. His mindset to involve his teammates on the game with good passes won't simply work given the space that the Spurs are giving him on the outside.
But the big difference on Game 3 was the incredible offensive performance of the Spurs. They looked more aggressive and they didn't hesitate when the opportunity to score in transition appeared. After scoring just 4 and 3 fast break points on the first two games of the series, San Antonio scored 20 fast break points on Game 3! Gary Neal and Danny Green were unstoppable and most of their shots were dictated by an awesome ball movement! However, there was also a lot of demerit from Miami's defense in my opinion. They looked sloppy on the close outs and their energy level was no way near the same level the Spurs' energy. San Antonio doesn't have as a philosophy to crush the offensive glass, but they still had 19 offensive rebounds on this game, for an insane 50% offensive rebound rate! The Heat were sending too much help defenders to contain a hobbled Tony Parker, who took advantage of that to find open teammates. This is why he had 8 assists in just 27 minutes!
Mario Chalmers had a great Game 2 with 6-12 FG, 2-4 3pts, 5-5 FT. 19 points and no turnovers, but he was flat out awful on Game 3 with 0-5 FG and 4 turnovers. On the other hand, Norris Cole was also out of control, something that forced Coach Spoelstra to use a lineup without a pure PG! The pace of Game 3 continued being slow, even though it was the fastest game of the series so far. History shows that whoever wins the Game 3 has a great shot of winning the championship and San Antonio with a perfect game with an almost perfect execution in both ends of the floor is now closer to grab the title.
Just like I predicted, San Antonio surprised Miami with some offensive adjustments on Game 3, but the reason why the Spurs got such a blowout win was due to a huge gap in terms of effort. Miami's defense has been very sloppy on these first games of the finals on making the close outs, with things going completely out of control on Game 3! The Heat is focusing too much on Tony Parker and he has been making the right decisions in assisting his open teammates. Parker attempted just 5 shots during Game 3, but as Miami was constantly sending an extra body defending him, he would simply pass the ball to the open Neal or Green and this was how he had a series high of 8 assists on Game 3. This was so ridiculous that even with Parker injured and on the locker room, Miami continued doing the same thing when Neal or Green would penetrate into the basket, even though these two players don't offer a lot of danger on this kind of plays. Thanks to that, the Spurs continued having an open shooter on the perimeter that repeatedly torched Miami with long-range shots.
After this humiliating loss, I believe that Miami will adjust on Game 4, especially considering how Parker is now banged up with a hamstring injury. They will give more space to Parker, while guarding the Spurs' shooters better. The normal trade off would be Parker having a big game, but with him banged up, the Spurs' offense will struggle. Miami's lack of energy on Game 3 was so evident that San Antonio had a 60% rebound rate and a 50% offensive rebound rate! I expect Miami to come much more focused also on this area, something that won't be hard to do.
On the other side, San Antonio has already showed their defensive strategy for this series: clog the paint and dare Lebron and Wade to shoot from mid-range. This has been evident for everybody and so, Miami will come better prepared for this on Game 4:
"A lot of the Miami defense is focusing on me, and my teammates are taking advantage of it" Tony Parker said. "They're playing great, and hopefully they can keep it going."
Teammate Dwyane Wade pointed out after the game that San Antonio's strategy may be causing James to second-guess himself.
"Their defensive scheme, it's to go under a lot of the pick-and-rolls, to play off a lot" Wade said. "And when they do that, you have the shot most of the time. So it takes away some of your aggressiveness at times, because you have the shot that you can make in your sleep and you're like, 'I'm going to shoot it,' and then it don't go in. But you have to keep shooting it."
"As dark as it was last night, it can't get no darker than that, especially for me," Lebron said Wednesday before the Heat's practice at the AT&T Center. "So I guarantee I'll be better for tomorrow (Game 4) for sure. I have to do whatever it takes. I mean, 7 for 21 isn't going to cut it. It's impossible for me to go 7 for 21, shoot 33 percent from the field and not have free throws. You have to figure out ways offensively that you can make an impact."
I believe that Lebron was so surprised with the space that was given to him that he started to hesitate if he should shoot or not. For this game, the mindset will be different, as he is already expecting to have some space and he isn't a bad shooter at all. I expect Miami to come more focused on Game 4, with more energy and they will take advantage of Parker's injury. The pace of Game 3 was incredibly slow on the first half and then it increased considerably on the second half due to the transition points scored by the Spurs, points that won't happen on Game 4. With the Heat bouncing back defensively on Game 4 and with this series being a slow paced one, I expect the Heat to bounce back in here on a low scoring contest and therefore, I'll be taking both Miami and the Under on Game 4.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 707/708 Under 187 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 707 Miami Heat (+1) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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