Projected Line: 192 points
I believe that this will be the last time that this series will have a totals line around the 180's points, as we should have been dealing with a line around the 192/195 points! Both Miami and San Antonio had matchups on their conference finals, where they had to change a bit their style having in account that they faced Memphis and Indiana, two similar teams on some key factors: they were #1 and #2 defensive teams all season long, they like to play on half court just to pound their opponents on the down low and they are also excellent offensive rebounding teams. This limited both the Heat and the Spurs on offense during the series.
Miami's offense was limited on their transition game, as that was due to their inability to grab defensive rebounds, with the Pacers scoring a lot of second chance points. Miami was also unable to generate their usual amount of good looks from the outside, while struggling to hit 3pts shots. That wasn't a surprise as the Pacers led the league on both transition and spot up defense. San Antonio's defense is also terrific, but they aren't at the same level as Indiana's defense on these key areas. Shane Battier will play more on this series and the Heat will use their traditional style. They will naturally struggle on defense, but the Duncan + Splitter combo isn't as powerful physically as Hibbert and West were.
The big difference is that unlike the Pacers, that were an one-dimensional team on offense and a streaky perimeter game, San Antonio is a complete team and they will punish any error that Miami commits. Indiana averaged 17.3 turnovers/game on the series against Miami, while the Spurs are averaging just 12 turnovers/game in the entire playoffs! They know how to run pick and rolls amazingly with Tony Parker, while they also know how to crush the undersized Miami's interior defense at the rim. Unlike the Heat x Pacers series, there won't be any terrible moments on offense from the Pacers, as San Antonio has a roster full of offensive threats, while everytime the Pacers needed to use a bench player, it was an offensive disaster. I expect this game to be a high scoring one and so, I'll be taking the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 701/702 Over 188,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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