WNBA - 601 Atlanta Dream @ 602 Indiana Fever
Projected Line: 154 points
According to my numbers, we should have been dealing with a 154 points totals line, a line that curiously was the opening line, until a line movement set it at 157 points. Somehow, this matchup is similar to the Heat x Pacers matchup, as one of the teams plays really small (Indiana), while the other one plays big (Atlanta). The Dream started the season by scoring almost 100 points against Tulsa, on a game where they had a pretty favorable matchup. Tulsa was shorthanded, they didn't have any real interior presence with Liz Cambage being limited with jet lag, while they also committed 22 turnovers in a fast paced contest! Therefore, Atlanta crushed them by attempting almost 60% of their shots in the paint, while scoring 58 points on this area plus 24 fast break points!
This will be a completely different game, as Indiana plays at a more halfcourt style, while the Dream don't have Lindsey Harding as their starting PG anymore, something that has been forcing them to use some inexperienced players on this position. Now against the elite defensive team of the Fever with their great ball pressure, Atlanta will struggle on offense. Indiana is coming from an easy win at San Antonio against the shorthanded and undersized Silver Stars, where they scored 46 points in the paint, something that is very unlikely to happen tonight against the powerful Dream frontcourt. I believe the totals line is therefore set too high for tonight's game and so, I'll be taking the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 601/602 Under 157,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
WNBA - 603 Tulsa Shock @ 604 New York Liberty
Projected Line: New York by 4 points
I expect Tulsa to be competitive tonight, as the Liberty is actually a good matchup for them. New York lost clearly at Connecticut last Saturday and their roster is showing that it isn't well balanced, with a clear lack of options on the frontcourt. To make things worse for them, Plenette Pierson is banged up, while center Cheryl Ford seems to be out for tonight. This will turn the Liberty into a mere jump shooting team and with problems to grab rebounds.
On this kind of game, Tulsa can be competitive, as they had Liz Cambage down low to dominate, while their backcourt can go toe-to-toe with New York. The Shock lost their last game at Washington on overtime, but they were playing without Candice Wiggins and Nicole Powell, two key players of the team. It seems that both of them are back for tonight, so I expect Tulsa to be very competitive tonight. Therefore, I'll be taking the Shock in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 603 Tulsa Shock (+7) @ -115 / 1.87 on Bovada
Projected Line: Chicago by 3 points
I believe Chicago is being clearly overrated in here, after having defeated Phoenix on the road last Monday on a National TV game. The Sky deserved to win that game, but they found the Mercury on their worst moment. Phoenix will be once again one of the worst defensive teams in the league, while they will still need to work on their offense to develop a regular chemistry on the lineup. The Mercury tanked last season due to a lot of injuries and they are right now a work in progress and so, the Sky took advantage of that to get an easy win. Chicago had a weird shot selection in that game with their two guards Prince and Delle Donne combining 36 FG attempts, while Sylvia Fowles had just 5 attempts, a bad sign for tonight, as Connecticut will surely be much more ready to face them than the Mercury were.
The Sun changed their coach, but their roster is pretty much the same from last season. Connecticut will want to play at a fast pace this season, in order to create turnovers, while unlike Chicago, they know how to feed the ball to their best player down low: the reigning MVP Tina Charles. The Sun had no problems in beating New York at home on their season debut, while showing already a good ball movement with just 13 turnovers. I believe the Sun's chemistry is much better than Chicago's right now and this high spread line can't be justified for this game. Therefore, I'll be taking Connecticut tonight.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 605 Connecticut Sun (+6,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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