Projected Line: San Antonio by 6 points
Gregg Popovich showed once again that he is a pure genius on the Game 3 of this series, as all his adjustments worked perfectly. He started Tiago Splitter and even though he isn't physically at 100% yet, his presence was good for the Spurs' offense. San Antonio used a lot of pick and rolls, mostly with Tony Parker, who was great in the first half with 25 points. while also forcing both Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson to work hard on defense, as they suffered with the screens from the Spurs' big men. This offensive strategy of San Antonio worn out the Warriors' backcourt. Tony Parker had to defend Stephen Curry and so, he would likely get worn out in the second half, so Popovich put Green and Leonard guarding Curry in the second half to avoid that.
The truth is that in the second half, Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson become worn out and so, they start to struggle in making their jump shots. Of course with Tiago Splitter in the starting lineup, coach Mark Jackson decided to put Festus Ezeli on the starting team and that was a disaster, as he is a disaster on offense. On the other hand, Popovich knew Golden State would eventually use small lineups, so he inserted Boris Draw on court. Diaw's ability on dribbling and passes versus the Warriors' small players gave him a big edge and so, he had 4-5 FG in 20 minutes.
The Spurs' defense has been phenomenal on this series. Since his 22-point third quarter in Game 1, Stephen Curry is just shooting 34.0% FG on this series. On the other side, since his 29-point first half in Game 2, Klay Thompson is just shooting 32.1% FG! San Antonio has been adjusting very well on defense. They are playing small, but always with Green/Joseph/Leonard on court to put pressure on the opposing shooters. I give some merit to Golden State, as they have been able to make some mini comebacks on the games, but the Spurs has been replying very well to that with runs of their own. The problem for the Warriors is that they had just 1 day off for today's game and they are really looking exhausted right now, especially Klay Thompson and Stephen Curry. That's normal considering Curry played 58, 43 and 42 minutes on the first three games of the series, while Thompson played 32 (fouled out), 47 and 42 minutes.
San Antonio will use the same gameplan today, something that will put the Warriors in clear trouble. Either they don't fight on the screens and with that the Spurs will have a bunch of wide open shots or they will fight, but they will get quickly exhausted due to their jump shooting style and lack of depth. The Warriors' defense is struggling because Jarrett Jack is a poor defender and he gets quickly exposed against the Spurs. It seems that Carl Landry will finally start today, but this will mean that they don't having any inside punch coming off the bench today and Landry may also struggle with Splitter's size.
I believe with their adjustments, San Antonio has now the clear upperhand on this series and as a veteran without a huge pressure to win today. I expect to do exactly what the Grizzlies did to the Clippers in the previous round. As soon as Memphis made the right adjustments, they defeated the Clippers four games in a row. I believe something similar will happen on this series and therefore, I expect a comfortable win for the Spurs today.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 725 San Antonio Spurs (-2) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
No comments:
Post a Comment