Friday, May 3, 2013

NBA Premium Play 05/02: Brooklyn Nets @ Chicago Bulls

NBA - 539 Brooklyn Nets @ 540 Chicago Bulls

Projected Line: Brooklyn by 3 points

We have a lot of injury problems for tonight's game. Joe Johnson said that he is playing on one leg, but that he is playing:

"I’m basically just a decoy, spot-up shooter. I can’t really do a whole lot," he said

Reggie Evans has a flu and wasn't at practice, but he will be ready to fly to play tonight. Andray Blatche's right calf is sore, but he hopes it will be 90 percent by tonight. On the other hand, Kirk Hinrich has been ruled out of tonight's game with a calf injury. That's a huge blow for Chicago, who will now have to rely on Nate Robinson to play heavy minutes at the PG position. Hinrich's absence will also impact the Bulls's defense, as Hinrich has been amazing on defending Deron Williams throughout this series. Luol Deng and Taj Gibson are both game-time decisions due to illness. Suddenly, the Bulls are shorthanded with all these injury problems.

Nate Robinson is coming from a team-high 44 minutes on Game 5 and with Kirk Hinrich still out, Deron Williams will have a clear edge at the PG position tonight. The problem isn't exactly the 1*1 matchup between Nate and Deron, but the way Chicago's help defense is forced to compensate Nate's lack of size. Luol Deng is forced to defend Deron Williams and so, he gets too exhausted to perform on offense. On the other hand, in order to avoid Deron Williams from attacking the rim, the Bulls's frontcourt is forced to get away from the basket to help Nate. The result of that puts the Bulls in a struggling position for the boards battle. This is why Brooklyn had 17 offensive rebounds on Game 5, with Brook Lopez getting 6 offensive boards on his own!

Perhaps thanks to a healthier frontcourt, the Nets have won the boards battle on the last two games of this series by grabbing 52.02% and 57.32% of the rebounds on those games. Brook Lopez has been the only player on this series that he is being consistent on offense and with Joakim Noah and Taj Gibson limited plus Nazr Mohammed being too old and slow to defend him, the same should happen today with Lopez dominating. Nate Robinson's presence on the backcourt will also force the Bulls's frontcourt to give extra help on the outside, allowing Brook to have more space down low.

On the other side, Chicago's offense has been very perimeter-based, with some "hero ball" from Nate Robinson plus long-range jumpers from Luol Deng and Jimmy Butler, an area where they aren't assertive. So far on this series, Chicago has been shooting quite well from the worst possible area to shoot (16-23 feet), but that's a dangerous style to have in comparison to Brook Lopez's domination on the down low. I see the Nets having more chances than the Bulls to win tonight's game and so, I'll be taking them in here tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 539 Brooklyn Nets (+1) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

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