This will be a great series for sure, but it won't be a pretty one to watch for sure! During the regular season, we had four games played between these two teams, with three of them being decided by four points or less each! We also had a blowout win for the Spurs by 103-82, on a game that was played during the worst run of the season for the Grizzlies, who suffered three straight 20-points losses in a row: 83-104 @Dallas; 73-99 vs LA Clippers; 82-103 @San Antonio.
When Memphis has the ball:
The Grizzlies' playing style is well known by everybody: post oriented who relies on post up plays to be efficient. Memphis was #5 in the league on this kind of play with 0.87 PPP and on their previous series against Oklahoma City, who would bring a tough post up defense to stop them, Memphis ended up having higher PPP numbers on post ups than their season average: 1.08, 1.20, 0.83, 1.10 and 0.91! Not even the Thunder's big men like Kendrick Perkins, Serge Ibaka or Nick Collison could stop them! This shows how Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph are really dominating these playoffs! This edge was the key for Memphis to eliminate San Antonio in the first round of the playoffs a couple of years ago, with Zach Randolph dominating the opposing Spurs' PF at the time that was the veteran Antonio McDyess and DeJuan Blair! However, this time around, the Spurs have on their starting frontcourt the duo formed by Tim Duncan and Tiago Splitter, who have turned the Spurs' interior defense into an elite one! They were #3 in the league in post up defense with 0.78 PPP allowed, #3 on rim defense with 60.1% FG allowed and #3 on defensive rebound rate with 74.9%! These are the kind of numbers a team need to have if they want to defend the Grizzlies with efficiency! So, the key factor in here will be to know Tiago Splitter's physical shape, as he is returned from injury a short time ago. He played 10, 19, 19, 25 and 31 minutes on the series against the Warriors, with him playing more than his season average (27/28min per game) in the final game of the series. Splitter seems ready to go, but the Spurs will definitely need to make quick adjustments for this series, as defending the perimeter-based Warriors and defending the post-oriented Grizzlies are two completely different tasks. It's a radical change and so, San Antonio needs to make sure that they are ready to handle Memphis' physicality.
When San Antonio has the ball:
Memphis' defense has been phenomenal on these playoffs, given sequence to what they had done during the regular season. However, San Antonio's offense will be the real test for the Grizzlies, as the Clippers and the Thunder had similar offenses that made them actually a nice matchup for the Grizzlies' defense. The Clippers had Chris Paul, while the Thunder had Kevin Durant, with both offenses being fully dictated by these two players. Memphis's stellar perimeter defense was great in putting pressure on these two players and both the Clippers and the Thunder lacked the alternatives on offense, while the truth is that the coaching of these two teams was also terrible throughout these two series. Memphis benefited that the Thunder's frontcourt players are almost useless on offense, so it was easy for Memphis to shut them down on offense, as Oklahoma City's offense was super one-dimensional. Things will be different with San Antonio. The Spurs with their sharp ball movement will be a much tougher challenge for Memphis. One of the "weaknesses" of the Grizzlies' defense is related to how they defend the pick and roll ball handler plays, where they were just #18 in the league during the regular season with 0.81 PPP allowed. Marc Gasol isn't comfortable in high pick and roll plays made by their opponents, while Zach Randolph's lack of speed is also damaging and this is why Memphis struggles against skilled Point Guards. In fact, Chris Paul's Clippers had +0.94 PPP in pick and roll ball handler plays in 4 of the 6 games of the series between Memphis and the Clippers. So, we can expect Gregg Popovich to run their offense almost entirely with high pick and rolls from Tony Parker and then with Marc Ginobili trying to move the Grizzlies' defense out of their comfort zone. If San Antonio doesn't manage to do that, then Memphis is just too good to be simply outscored. But the Grizzlies won't be able to overhelp on the perimeter like they did in the series against the Thunder, as the Spurs' frontcourt players in Tim Duncan and Tiago Splitter will hurt them on the down low, so they'll need to balance things out in the best possible way. The problem of the Spurs has been their 3pts inconsistency, as they shot 13-26, 5-21, 6-20, 7-27, 10-21 and 7-19 3pts on their series against the Warriors. They will eventually get more good looks on offense than Memphis will on this series, but they will need to be more consistent than they have been on these playoffs.
Prediction: Two very different styles and so, I expect a super tight series where the homecourt edge will be decisive for San Antonio on a potential Game 7. Unlike what happened last season, the Spurs' role players like Danny Green, Boris Diaw or Kawhi Leonard aren't disappearing at the same time on these playoffs, while as time goes by, San Antonio is playing better and better. These Spurs would have no chance on this series without Tiago Splitter and with Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili rusty, but now I actually believe San Antonio will get the upperhand in here on a very close series.
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