MLB - 927 Baltimore Orioles @ 928 Los Angeles Angels
(Starting Pitchers: M. Gonzalez vs J. Vargas)
Miguel Gonzalez will start for the Orioles tonight and he is coming from a no-decision last Sunday in Oakland, where he allowed four runs and seven hits in 5.1 innings. He has been quite inconsistent this season, as his 17/14 K/BB ratio on 29.1 innings shows. Looking at his numbers (4.60 ERA, 5.27 FIP and 5.39 xFIP), his advanced stats are clearly worse than his ERA, so I expect him to regress a bit. His main problem has been against RH batters, where he has a horrible 7.52 FIP and 5.97 xFIP against them! Considering the Angels have an almost-exclusively RH lineup, Gonzalez is into some deep trouble tonight.
On the other side, Jason Vargas will start for the Angels tonight and he is yet to win a decision this season. He struggled early on the season and even though his last two outings were better at first sight, his advanced stats tell us another story: 2.25 ERA, 5.27 FIP and 4.15 xFIP & 3.86 ERA, 6.02 FIP and 5.99 xFIP! Baltimore is #12 in the league against LH pitchers this season, so I expect the Orioles to put some problems on the struggling Vargas as well. Therefore, I expect both pitchers to struggle tonight and so, I'll be taking the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 927/928 Over 8,5 (w/ M. Gonzalez & J. Vargas) @ -115 / 1.87 on Bookmaker
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