Projected Line: Memphis by 1 point
On this series, both teams had legit chances to win every game down the stretch, so this 5 points line is huge for the underdog. We took Memphis -5 on Game 3 of this series, but the truth must be told, we were lucky to win that play, as the game was tied at 81 with just one minute to go. Oklahoma City's defense has been phenomenal and if there is a team that can stop Memphis' frontcourt, the Thunder is possibly one of the teams, with Indiana being probably the other team who would be able to do that. Oklahoma City is taking advantage that Memphis is terrible on their outside shooting, so they are packing the paint, something that makes Zach Randolph's and Marc Gasol's action much tougher. This is why the Grizzlies scored just 30 points in the paint on Game 3, with 10-17 FG at the rim. I believe this trend will continue tonight, as Memphis won't change their style on offense and so, the Thunder's defense is likely to slow them down tonight once again.
The major difference is what Oklahoma City's offense will be able to do tonight. The Grizzlies' defense has been also phenomenal on this series, but I saw the Thunder making errors on offense in Game 3 that can easily be corrected tonight: Serge Ibaka missed 2 easy dunks and 1 layup; the Thunder also committed some turnovers that were just bad luck and even though the Thunder was #1 in the regular season in FT% with 82%, they ended Game 3 was a poor 12-19 FT! Oklahoma City managed to be competitive in Game 3, even though they shot 4-17 FG from 16-23 feet and 5-18 3pts! I expect the Thunder to be slightly better on offense tonight, as their issues from Game 3 can easily be corrected, so I see them having a lot of value tonight with this 5-points line.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 729 Oklahoma City Thunder (+5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
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