More than a conference finals, this matchup between the Heat and the Pacers will be a complete contrast of style that will turn this series into the most interesting one so far on this postseason. Regardless the outcome of the games, Indiana will always play big on this series! This happened against the Knicks on the previous round and Coach Frank Vogel has already given some indications that playing small just to "match" the Heat's lineup is completely out of question.
When Miami has the ball:
On their previous series against the Bulls, Miami was perfectly comfortable in playing at halfcourt after the big lineup of the Bulls, as according to my numbers, the average pace factor on that series was 85.3! On the three games of the regular season between Miami and Indiana, the pace factor average was 83.4, so we can expect this series to be a really slow one as well. If we exclude the first game of the series against Chicago, where their offensive rate was just 98.4, Miami managed to have at least an offensive rate of 105 in each game of the series, something that tells us that Chicago's defense was unable to stop the Heat's offense. Will Indiana be able to stop them? The Pacers have Roy Hibbert to protect the paint in the same way that Chicago had Joakim Noah, however there's a big difference between the backcourts of the Bulls and the Pacers. One thing is Chicago having just Nate Robinson, Marco Bellineli and Jimmy Butler available on the backcourt, while Indiana has George Hill, Lance Stephenson and Paul George available for this series. After a poor Game 1, Miami shot 29-77 (38%) 3pts, as Chicago simply couldn't make the right close outs as their defensive scheme was unable to work due to the lack of athleticism from their available backcourt, who couldn't rotate quickly to close out on the perimeter. Luol Deng and Kirk Hinrich were deeply missed on the Bulls' backcourt defense. This won't happen with Indiana, who is ready to prevent points at the rim and 3pts shots from the Heat. This is how their defensive scheme normally works. On the three games of the regular season between these two teams, Miami shot 8-16 FG, 8-11 FG and 13-18 FG at the rim! Very few attempts! So, Miami will need to keep being sharp on their outside shooting and with their great ball movement, they will keep generating good looks, but this time it won't be as easy for them as it was against Milwaukee and Chicago.
When Indiana has the ball:
We already know that Indiana's gameplan against Miami and really against any team is to pound down low, but they may struggle in here to put the ball in the hands of David West and Roy Hibbert. If we exclude the last game of their series against the Knicks, Indiana committed at least 15 turnovers on each game, with some of them being on mere entry passes to the post. Miami's pressure on defense will be a challenge for the Pacers. Luckily for them, the Knicks didn't have the athleticism to take advantage of their turnovers on the previous season. but Miami has an athletic lineup who can quickly get into transition and take advantage of the Pacers' errors on offense. Miami will try to do what San Antonio did on the Game 1 against Memphis: deny the Pacers from putting the ball on their big guys by double teaming them as soon as they have the ball. But I also believe that Coach Vogel will be ready for that. Miami is yet to face a frontcourt on this postseason that is efficient on post up plays. So far on these playoffs, Miami's opponents had an average volume of post ups of just 6.6%, while Indiana is averaging 17.4% volume! Indiana will also need to turn offensive rebounding into a huge weapon for them if they want to get into the finals. On the three games between these two teams on the regular season, Indiana grabbed 62.8%, 55.4% and 53.5% of the rebounds in those games! The depleted Bulls were able to outrebound Miami in 4 of the 5 games of that series, while grabbing 9, 12, 11, 19 and 15 offensive boards!
Prediction: Foul trouble might become a key on this series for the Pacers, as we can be sure that this series will be extremely physical. The Pacers' defensive efficiency on this series will depend from the criteria of the referees. If the Pacers' starters get into foul trouble, then they will be in deep trouble. Remember when they played without George Hill on the Game 5 of their series against the Knicks? They got crushed! But anyway, Miami's offense is in another level and ultimately this will be the big factor of this games. I expect Miami to advance to the Finals in 6 games.
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