Projected Line: 184 points
Chicago's defensive strategy for Game 2 was totally crushed by the Heat, who were aggressive and completely outplayed the Bulls in all the four factors: eFG% 66.4% vs 41.4%; TO rate 18.5% vs 20.7%; Offensive rebounding 33.3% vs 26.7%; FT% rate 41.4% vs. 27.6%. In Game 1, it was evident that Chicago's gameplan of running back quickly to defense in order to prevent Miami's transition game. Thanks to that, the Bulls had just 9 offensive rebounds, with 7 of them coming from Joakim Noah and Taj Gibson. Their wings were more worried in running back to defense than crushing the boards and truth must be told, Miami scored just 9 fast break points with 5-12 FG and 0.93 PPP in transitions. What about in Game 2? Well, Miami crushed the Bulls with 20 fast break points and 8-12 FG + 1.25 PPP on transition plays! Not only the Heat killed the Bulls in transition, as they also completely outplayed on half court. The Bulls' rim defense has been great all season long (with Noah on court of course), but Miami shot 24-30 FG at the rim in Game 2! That's 80% FG!
It will be up to Chicago to minimize these damages tonight on Game 3 at least in one of these two areas if they want to be competitive tonight. Miami's ball pressure defense has been the key on this series, as they are creating a lot of turnovers that they are consequently using to score easy points. Chicago averaged a nice mark of 13.1 turnovers per game in the series against Brooklyn, but they committed 16 and 19 turnovers in the first two games of this series. Miami's strategy won't be any different tonight, but at least the Bulls should be better prepared to face the high pressure from Miami. On the other hand, Coach Thibodeau also needs to find a way to make Carlos Boozer somewhat relevant against Miami. In the four games of the regular season, Boozer was great against Miami with 19ppg, 54.4% FG and 15 rpg! But he has been useless on offense so far on this series! He needs to be more aggressive to help his team on offense.
I really believe Chicago will have tons of offensive problems on this series. They won't be able to crash the boards because if they do that, they will have lots of problems on their transition defense. So, I believe the Bulls will use the same gameplan tonight that they used on the first two games of the series. Miami's ball pressure defense will also continue. Chicago committed a lot of turnovers on the first two games of the series and even if they prevent that from happening tonight as well, Miami's pressure will put the Bulls constantly on a battle against the shot clock violation, something that will force them to take some bad shots. Chicago just can't generate a high number of shots down low due to this. They are now transformed into a jump shooting team, but without the proper players to be effective on that.
What I believe will change tonight will be Chicago's defense. The pace of the first two games of the series wasn't high, but the Bulls will try to slow it down even more to turn this game into a pure half court contest. Chicago wasn't ready to face such aggressiveness from Miami, something that not only allowed the Heat to shoot 9-18 3pts, as they were also able to shoot a ridiculous 80% FG at the rim. I believe Chicago will be able to stop the Heat in at least one of these two areas tonight, on a clear defensive bounce back from the Bulls.
Considering Miami's offensive regression and Chicago's offensive struggles continuing tonight, I expect a low scoring game in here. Therefore, I'll be taking the Under on this contest tonight.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 717/718 Under 187 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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